Jake’s Predictions 25/26: Staked 155pts | Returned 185.45pts | P/L +33.45pts | ROI 22%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 12:30 – Tottenham vs Manchester United
2pts Micky van de Ven 1+ total shot at 21/20 (Betway)
0.5pt Micky van de Ven to score anytime at 12/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 15:00 – Everton vs Fulham
1pt Kenny Tete to be carded at 10/3 (bet365)
Saturday 17:30 – Sunderland vs Arsenal
2.5pts Under 2.5 goals at 5/6 (Betway)
Saturday 20:00 – Chelsea vs Wolves
1pt Enzo Fernandez to score anytime at 10/3 (bet365)
Sunday 14:00
1.5pts Marcos Senesi to be carded in Aston Villa vs Bournemouth at 12/5 (William Hill)
1pt Justin Kluivert to be carded Aston Villa vs Bournemouth at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
2pts Brentford draw no bet vs Newcastle at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1.5pts Crystal Palace to beat Brighton at 13/10 (General)
1pt Leeds Under 0.5 goals vs N Forest at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
Sunday 16:30 – Manchester City vs Liverpool
1pt Under 2.5 goals at 13/8 (General)
1pt Draw at 3/1 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
Last week was a losing one, with very little going right. We ended around -3.5pts down for the week, mainly salvaging some profit thanks to how correctly we called the Arsenal game.
Win to nil and under Burnley shots flew in to rescue what would have been a terrible week, and keep us in healthy profit heading into gameweek 11 before the final international break of the year.
Onto this week, and we have some familiar faces and theories, and some new ones, with a lovely looking blend of markets and prices to get stuck into.
Let’s hope we can get another week in the green before a well-earned two week break!
Tottenham vs Manchester United
Tottenham were dreadful last weekend against Chelsea. Just three total shots equating to 0.10 xGF was a miserable attacking display, while the Blues had their way with them going the other way (3.68 xGA).
A similar performance here would yield another defeat, that is for certain, but we have to expect better. Manchester United are in town this weekend after another away game without a win, the Red Devils returning just four wins in 19 road league games under Ruben Amorim.
We’ll be swerving the main 1X2 markets then, and while he failed for us last weekend, we have to go back in on MICKY VAN DE VEN 1+ SHOT and TO SCORE ANYTIME at 21/20 and 12/1 respectively.
Obviously, he failed to land either last weekend when we were on him, only to land both in midweek against Copenhagen – though that goal didn’t fall in line with the set-piece threat logic as he ran the length of the field like Gareth Bale…
Still, after that goal he is now Spurs’ outright top scorer this season, netting six times in 15 appearances, so against a vulnerable defensive team from set-pieces, he is must-back at these big prices.
Averaging 0.16 xG per 90, he is the biggest centre-back scoring threat in the league this season, and with Manchester United ranking fourth-worst for set-piece xGA (5.06) this season and conceding the fifth most set-piece shots (42), Van de Ven should get an opportunity here – provided Spurs don’t play like a National League side for the second week running.
Nikola Milenkovic had two shots against United, Murillo had one last week. The week before Lewis Dunk had a shot. At Anfield, Virgil van Dijk had two shots and Ibrahim Konate one.
So United are very vulnerable to centre-back shots from dead-balls, and if all else fails Micky, just dribble past everyone again and score please.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1200 (06/10/25)
Everton vs Fulham
I was kicking myself on Monday. We had to sit through Sunderland vs Everton and watch all of Sunderland’s right side get carded apart from the man we were on. Right back Trai Hume and right-centre-back Nordi Mukiele both had their names taken, with Jack Grealish responsible for the former
The Everton winger continues to draw a load of fouls, so we have to get to back the right back card and on Saturday, with Fulham’s KENNY TETE the bet at 10/3.
Grealish has seen five opposing right backs booked in his eight league starts this season, with the right backs facing the tricky winger committing an average of 2.5 fouls per game. The Englishman is unsurprisingly leading the league in fouls won per 90.
Tete has kept things pretty clean so far this season but his one card came against Newcastle in a game he struggled to contain Anthony Gordon, committing two fouls on that occasion.
Last season he was booked five times (0.25 per 90) and committed 1.77 fouls per 90, and I suspect we see him get close to those levels as the season progresses now Fulham have a fully-fit squad, allowing them to be more aggressive.
Andy Madley is the man with the whistle and while he has blown hot and cold this season, averaging 3.0 cards per game in the Premier League, he did dish out five cards when reffing Fulham at Aston Villa earlier in the season including four for the Cottagers.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1230 (06/11/25)
West Ham vs Burnley
West Ham may look a tempting price at even money to win here following their much-improved display and win against Newcastle last weekend, but I’m wanting to see more. That could have just been a good time to play Newcastle, who had Carabao Cup and Champions League games either side.
Burnley’s data is horrific, with them propping up every metric (xGF, xGA, xGD and xP), but I think a lot of that is to do with the tough schedule they’ve played. The Clarets have already played five of the ‘big six’, as well as playing Aston Vila away, losing all of those contests, but are unbeaten their other four games against Wolves, Leeds, Sunderland and Nottingham Forest, winning three.
I’m taking a wide berth of this one.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1335 (06/11/25)
Sunderland vs Arsenal
I’m not expecting this to game to bring the fireworks. Arsenal are pure control freaks, and that’s why they are the best defensive team in the world right now.
The Gunners have kept 12 clean sheets in 15 games across all competitions this season, winning all of those to nil, allowing just 0.62 xGA per game.
Every team they’ve faced has struggled to create against them, with only Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle breaching Mikel Arteta’s side so far this season.
Arsenal win to nil would be an automatic play at 11/10 here, but two factors have swayed me away from it. The first is the likelihood Mikel Merino will be leading the line again. He did us a solid in midweek when netting a brace in Prague, but Slavia are a porous defensive side, Sunderland are not.
That’s the second point. The Black Cats are an incredibly tough nut to crack, boasting the fourth best defensive process in the league – only City, Newcastle and Arsenal themselves have shipped fewer xGA.
So, rather than taking the risk on Arsenal scoring for a win to nil repeat without their star striker, off the back of a midweek game in Prague and with a host of attacking injuries, we’ll just back UNDER 2.5 GOALS at 5/6.
Unsurprisingly given the defence-first nature of both teams, Unders has landed seven times in 10 outings for both, with Sunderland’s games averaging 2.0 goals and Arsenal’s 2.1 goals per game.
Both attacks leave a lot to be desired too, with Sunderland ranking fifth worst for xGF per game (1.00), and Arsenal only seeing 1.06 open-play xGF per game. One goal will likely be enough to win this game, with Under 1.5 goals at 12/5, and for those wanting a bigger price, the No first goalscorer could be a runner at 10/1.
Score prediction: Sunderland 0-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1410 (06/11/25)
Chelsea vs Wolves
Vitor Pereira is out after a shocking start to the season at Wolves. They sit bottom on just two points after 10 games, already eight points from safety. Whoever replaces the Portuguese manager has a near impossible job on their hands to keep the Old Gold in the division.
Youth team coaches James Collins and Richard Walker will be in charge for their visit to Stamford Bridge, and given how things have gone on the road this season (W0 D1 L4 – scored just once), a home win should be as certain as odds of 2/5 imply.
Having said that, Chelsea aren’t exactly the most trustworthy of teams, especially at home, managing just two home league wins this season, losing to both Brighton and Sunderland.
Rather than focus on something result based with Chelsea, a goalscorer price has caught my eye at 10/3. ENZO FERNANDEZ‘s data this season has been excellent, with the Argentine getting into advanced areas and getting on the end of a load of good chances.
He has four goals to his name this season across league and Champions League matches, and should have had more, being on the end of chances equating to 5.66 xG, averaging 0.48 per 90.
He in fact leads his team for xG per 90 in the Premier League, which is incredibly impressive for a midfielder, and as a bonus he is the Blues’ designated penalty taker in Cole Palmer’s absence, scoring both spot-kicks he’s taken.
At the prices, this looks a cracking bet.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1430 (06/11/25)
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
This game could explode with cards. We have a card-happy referee in John Brooks, who has averaged 4.91 per game since the start of last season, and two obliging teams whose recent head-to-heads have seen tallies of 7-10-4-8.
So we’ll head into the player card markets where two stand out at the prices. The first is JUSTIN KLUIVERT TO BE CARDED who is available at 10/3 with Sky Bet.
Now, Kluivert isn’t guaranteed to start having been named in the XI just three times this season, so keep an eye on team news, but we have to take a chance at the price available.
He was booked last week as a sub at Manchester City, and picked up a card when starting the game before against Nottingham Forest. All told this season the Dutchman has committed 2.16 fouls per 90 and collected 0.54 cards per 90.
Last season he averaged 1.80 fouls per 90 and was booked eight times (0.31 per 90), and here’s the kicker, Bournemouth’s number 10 has been booked in three of the last four head-to-heads with Aston Villa, with Kluivert collecting two of those.
That’s likely to do with how good Villa’s midfielders are at evading the intense Cherries press, leading to some cynical fouls, so Kluivert looks a cracking bet here should he get the nod.
We’ll also take a punt on Cherries centre-back MARCOS SENESI TO BE CARDED at 12/5 given recent head-to-head data and the Argentine’s card record.
Across the last four meetings, Bournemouth centre-backs have been booked five times, with Senesi booked in two of his three starts against Villa. Ollie Watkins is likely a big reason for that, stretching the pitch against Bournemouth’s high-line, as well as Morgan Rogers jinking runs.
Senesi’s card record is simply incredible since joining the Cherries too, collecting seven cards in his first season, 13 the following one, five last season and three already in 25/26. That’s a total of 28 cards, while his cards per 90 of 0.45 since the start of 23/24 is only outdone by two players.
That would give us a blanket price of 17/10 for a card in every game, making the 12/5 value straight away, but given the head-to-head record and the referee, I think the price is huge value. Four centre-backs have been booked in Villa’s last five games, too.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1230 (07/11/25)
Brentford vs Newcastle
Newcastle have a problem away from home. Since the start of February, the Magpies have played 12 away league games and won only twice, losing six of those. Their process in that time hasn’t been awful (1.21 xGF, 1.06 xGA per game), but this season especially, performances have been very poor given the schedule.
Eddie Howe’s side impressed in their opener at Aston Villa, but since then have been woeful against Leeds, Bournemouth, Brighton and West Ham, struggling to carve out any good chances of note (0.57 xGF per game).
That’s one reason why I want to oppose them on Sunday, with another being the fact they head to London after a midweek Champions League game, a week on from losing in the capital to a bad West Ham team following a midweek Carabao Cup game against Tottenham.
The last time Newcastle were in the Champions League (23/24) their away form suffered hugely as the struggled to deal with the midweek/weekend demands. That season, Howe’s men lost 11 of their 19 away games in the league.
Brentford being the team they are facing is another reason to get against the Magpies, with Keith Andrews’ side picking up where they left off under Thomas Frank in terms of being an excellent home team.
Since winning promotion to the top flight, the Bees have won 34 of 81 home games (42%) and avoided defeat in 56 of them (69%), so we have to take BRENTFORD DRAW NO BET at odds against, with money back if the game ends all square.
Over the past three and a bit seasons at the Gtech, the Bees have lost just 15 times, with over half of those defeats coming against the traditional big six.
So far this term Andrews’ men have already brushed aside champions Liverpool, an improving Manchester United and European qualifiers Aston Villa, they’ve held Chelsea, and lost only to Manchester City.
That’s a tough home schedule, so the fact the Bees’ underlying process is positive (1.82 xGF, 1.44 xGA per game) is another huge vote of confidence that the hosts can add to their scalps this season by beating Newcastle.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1250 (07/11/25)
Crystal Palace vs Brighton
Ah, the famed M23 derby. While many scoff at this as being a legitimate rivalry, it’s worth remembering that last season’s meeting at Selhurst Park saw three red cards in a hot-headed clash.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see another high card count here, especially with Tim Robinson in charge, but I can’t quite settle on a player I like at the prices to be booked. Instead, the bet I keep coming back to is a pro-Palace one.
In my book, Crystal Palace are the better team, and this clash of styles suits Oliver Glasner’s men. This season Palace rank as the third best team in the entire division according to expected points, that’s despite playing six of last season’s top nine already.
They also boast the best attack in the top flight, averaging 1.85 xGF per game, while at home that average is north of 2.30 xGF per game. At Selhurst Park they are unbeaten and unfortunate not to have more than two wins to their name.
Yes, they have had a midweek Conference League game and went fairly strong with their XI, but I still have more trust in them than I do Brighton at the moment, and when we factor in they haven’t played a home game following a European game since their very first home match of the season (1-1 vs Forest), I’ll happily take a swing on the hosts.
The other two post-UECL games came at Everton after a trip to Poland, with Palace conceding a late winner in that one, and at Arsenal, the best team in the league.
PALACE are 13/10 TO WIN the game which looks too big to me. Brighton remain inconsistent and have really struggled away from home this season (W1 D1 L3), with their sole victory at Stamford Bridge coming thanks to a Chelsea red card that swung the game.
Since the start of last season, the Seagulls have been one of the worst defensive teams when travelling, conceding 43 goals in 24 games and allowing a huge 1.61 xGA per game, so I’ll take what I think is a better team to beat them on Sunday.
Glasner’s side did the double over Brighton last season, and I think the Eagles are a bad match-up for the Seagulls again this time around.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1410 (07/11/25)
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
Sean Dyche really has this Nottingham Forest defence looking mean. Yes they have conceded four in two league games, but they have kept two clean sheets on the continent and their underlying defensive data has been exceptional.
In Dyche’s four matches in charge, Forest have allowed an xGA total of just 2.39, which works out at an average of 0.60 per game. Should that continue, we should expect to see more clean sheets for Forest, and that’s the angle this weekend, where LEEDS UNDER 0.5 GOALS looks worthy of a bet at 2/1.
The Whites have fired a blank in four of their five away league games this season, only netting at sorry Wolves, with Daniel Farke’s side breaching 1.0 xGF just once.
They looked toothless at Brighton last weekend and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Forest limit Leeds to very little again here.
I was temped by the hosts win to nil at 29/10 but given they have failed to score in two of Dyche’s four, I’ll just take away the need for them to score and trust their defensive process.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-0 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1450 (07/11/25)
Manchester City vs Liverpool
This is a game that will be given all the hype heading into the weekend. What usually happens with such games? They fail to deliver.
The last four head-to-heads between Manchester City and Liverpool have all gone UNDER 2.5 GOALS, and I think we have to zig when everyone’s zagging and back a tight, cagey game at 13/8.
Liverpool have tightened up in their last two, keeping clean sheets against Aston Villa and Real Madrid thanks to a return to a tried and tested formula, and I suspect we’ll see the same again here.
And while Manchester City have been scoring goals for fun of late, they have actually seen the unders land in 50% of their league games this season, with their defence looking much more solid, conceding just eight goals and 0.98 xGA per game.
I also think the timing and the stakes around this game lend themselves to the unders. This huge clash comes just before an international break and after a hectic schedule for both teams. This will be the pair’s eighth game in 23 days since the last international break, meaning the intensity could be pretty low.
And finally, this really is a must-not-lose game for both. Heading into the weekend, City and Liverpool are six and seven points behind Arsenal respectively, meaning defeat could spell curtains for a title challenge, with a DRAW not a devastating result for either, so we have to chance the stalemate at 3/1.
I could be reading this wrong, but I can’t imagine either team really taking the game to the other and creating a ding-dong basketball style match, and if the game is low on goals the chance of the draw really does increase.
These big games between City, Arsenal and Liverpool over the last two and a bit seasons have gone under 2.5 goals in nine of 14 (64%), with eight (57%) also ending all square, so we have to chance another repeat.
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1650 (07/11/25)
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