The Nicholls-Wincanton love affair: can we put our faith in the Ditcheat big guns on Badger Beers day?
Wincanton is Paul Nicholls’ playground and the 14-time champion trainer has saddled 171 more winners at his local track than anywhere else in the country.
Since Nicholls took out a licence, he has sent 1,691 horses to Wincanton and 472 of them have won for a 28 per cent strike-rate, with 18 per cent of his runners finishing second. So what to make of the team he has assembled for Badger Beers day?
The Ditcheat trainer has three early favourites in four of the five ITV4 races, and is without a runner in the other.
Jubilee Alpha is Nicholls’ first big dart to throw in the mares’ handicap hurdle (1.45), a race in which he also saddles the unexposed Jena D’Oudairies. Jubilee Alpha drops in grade after winning a Listed race last time and may be a class apart, although her price lacks juice against improving mares Bethpage and Laravie.
Perhaps there will be an upset in the Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (2.23). Nicholls may have plundered three of the past ten runnings, but he had horses beaten at odds of 9-5, 4-6, 5-6, 4-5, 3-1, 6-4 and 13-8 in the other seven.
Blueking D’Oroux is odds-on and will need to jump better than he did when suffering defeat as the 2-9 favourite on his chasing debut at Newton Abbot. This race may lack depth, but the Henry de Bromhead-trained mare Cobra Queen bettered Blueking D’Oroux’s Newton Abbot Racing Post Rating by 1lb when winning a handicap chase at Roscommon and gets 7lb from the market leader.
There should be no stopping the Nicholls-trained Rubaud in his bid for a hat-trick in the Elite Hurdle (2.55). Rubaud beat much higher-rated opposition in the previous two runnings and has everything in his favour for a weak race after he shrugged aside Burdett Road at Kempton last month.
Nobody likes to target Wincanton’s feature Badger Beers Chase (3.30) more than Nicholls and Threeunderthrufive must have an outstanding shout in his bid to give the trainer a fifth victory since 2017.
Threeunderthrufive was second in the Badger Beers two years ago on his first start since wind surgery, and follows the same path. This rates his most straightforward assignment since.
Desert Orchid winner Soul Icon, who was second to the now 153-rated Boombawn in the Rising Stars on this card last year, rates the chief threat under good 5lb claimer Toby McCain-Mitchell if he can see out this new trip.
Analysis by Robbie Wilders
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