Should You Start Indianapolis Colts WRs Josh Downs or Alec Pierce in Fantasy Football Week 10?
The Indianapolis Colts’ receiving corps continues presenting vastly different risk profiles as Josh Downs and Alec Pierce navigate their contrasting roles. Both receivers enter Week 10 following a shootout loss where volume spiked for everyone. Can fantasy football managers trust either Colts receiver this week?
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Josh Downs’ Fantasy Outlook
Last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers showcased both the best and most concerning aspects of Downs’ fantasy profile. The slot specialist posted a season-high 65% snap share while running 39 routes. Daniel Jones attempted 50 passes in that contest, a level volume that will probably never happen again.
Even with that extreme passing volume, Downs’ role remained unchanged. The 24-year-old saw nine targets, resulting in an 18% target share that aligns perfectly with his season average. Downs caught six passes for 57 yards and a touchdown, extending his scoring streak to three consecutive games.
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Downs operates almost exclusively from the slot, running routes from that alignment 70% of the time. The North Carolina product does not play in two-receiver sets, creating a defined but limited role within the offense. His recent production surge stems almost entirely from finding the end zone rather than expanded usage.
The touchdown dependency becomes clear when examining his full season. Downs has posted four straight games with double-digit fantasy points, but managed just 6.4 fantasy points or fewer in three of his first four contests. Without touchdowns, the floor drops precipitously for a receiver who ranks fourth on the Colts in target share at 18%, behind Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, and Pierce.
Alec Pierce’s Fantasy Outlook
Pierce is coming off one of the best performances of his career, catching six passes for 135 yards against Pittsburgh’s defense. The Cincinnati product saw a career-high 13 targets, though his sub-50% catch rate highlighted the boom-or-bust nature of his role. Pierce has managed at least 8.9 fantasy points in five of his last six games, establishing a surprisingly consistent floor lately.
The vertical specialist maintains his status as a pure deep ball merchant. Pierce’s 20.7 average depth of target ranks second highest in the league among qualified receivers. This deep-ball profile creates extreme volatility, as he either connects on explosive plays or disappears from the stat sheet entirely.
Target efficiency remains Pierce’s primary concern for sustainable production. Despite near 90% snap share over the past three weeks, Pierce is targeted on just 20.9% of his routes run, ranking 48th in the league. The disconnect between playing time and target frequency reflects his specialized role as a downfield threat rather than a possession receiver.
Pierce has now earned double-digit targets in two of his last three games and reached at least 67 receiving yards in five of seven games he’s been healthy this season. The 25-year-old currently sits third on the Colts in target share at 20%, trailing only Pittman and Warren but ahead of Downs.
Should You Start Downs or Pierce This Week?
Atlanta presents a challenging matchup that doesn’t favor Indianapolis’ passing game. The Falcons function as a run-funnel defense, allowing the ninth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers while permitting the 12th-most to running backs.
Last week’s loss provides important context for how the Colts plan to approach this game. Indianapolis fell to Pittsburgh in just their second defeat of the season, and Jonathan Taylor managed only 14 carries in his worst performance of the year. NFL coaches inevitably will review that film and conclude they didn’t run the ball enough despite negative game script being the obvious cause of reduced rushing attempts.
Expect the Colts to lean heavily on Taylor this week as 5.5-point favorites on a neutral field in Germany. The projected positive game script naturally reduces passing volume for an offense that prefers establishing the ground game. Indianapolis should control this contest throughout, creating fewer opportunities for both receivers than they saw against the Steelers.
Pierce will need to connect on a long reception to justify his fantasy investment this week. His deep-ball profile aligns poorly with a game script favoring clock management and rushing attempts.
Downs probably needs to score for the fourth consecutive game to return meaningful fantasy value, as his modest target share won’t generate sufficient yardage in a run-heavy game plan.
Both receivers qualify as volatile WR4/Flex options in Week 10. Downs offers the slightly higher floor due to his recent touchdown streak and role on third downs, while Pierce provides boom potential through his big-play ability. Fantasy managers should temper expectations for both given Atlanta’s defensive strengths and Indianapolis’ likely run-first approach in a favorable game environment.
