2 of 7 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic
Thought from The Athletic’s J.J. Bailey:
What do we say to the God of Death? One of these teams will say, “Not today.”
It’s a shame that Baltimore and Minnesota have to face each other at this point, since they are both in the midst of heroic campaigns to stave off early elimination.
Minnesota’s situation seems more desperate, since even though they pulled off a miracle road upset of the Lions, they’re still last in their division. But in the process of stunning Detroit, they also returned to their idealized selves, leaning into a complex and terrifying defense and minimizing what’s asked of J.J. McCarthy.
The theory at the outset of the season was that if the defense is that smothering, and the rest of the team is that good, McCarthy needs to make four or five high-level throws for the team to win. In Minnesota’s two victories with him under center, that’s precisely how it worked. This is normally where one would question whether the defense can do that against a team like Baltimore, but after Detroit, the answer is unequivocally yes. A million miles lie between “can” and “will,” but listening to the Vikings talk, they certainly believe they rediscovered their top defensive gear.
But McCarthy’s required handful of throws is another matter. The Ravens defense is not the performance-enhancing drug for quarterbacks it was to begin the year, evidenced by them holding Miami to -.16 EPA per pass and never looking particularly bothered by the Dolphins complex, quick-fire offense. They’ll still have to contend with Justin Jefferson, who can make any bad throw a good one, but McCarthy has not looked like he’s ready to operate without bumpers, so game planning for the Vikings attack should be straightforward.
If Jackson (who is again playing MVP football) can establish any semblance of a passing game, it’ll free Derrick Henry up to punish Minnesota’s (relatively) weak run defense. As the Dolphins just learned, once Henry gets going, it’s like trying to tackle a particularly violent ice cream truck, so preventing that has to be first priority. Otherwise, they’ll need more from McCarthy than just a few good throws, and he’s yet to show he can fill that order.
0 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, USA Today
