Giants vs. Bears NFL prediction, picks and best bets: Dart aims to lead New York to a road upset
The New York Giants will try to snap a three-game losing streak when they take on the Chicago Bears on Sunday at Soldier Field.
New York (2-7) has not won a road game this season and has not won a game away from MetLife Stadium since Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season against the Seattle Seahawks. The Giants have six one-score road losses in that span, including two this season.
Still, according to the NFL Week 10 odds, Jaxson Dart and Co. will have their work cut out against the high-flying Bears (5-3), who have won five of their past six games and are 2-1 at Soldier Field this year.
Giants vs. Bears Predictions and best bets
- Bears -4.5 (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Tyrone Tracy 60.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
- Jaxson Dart Over 37.5 rushing yards (-113) at DraftKings Sportsbook
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
The Giants have stayed within five points in two of their five road losses (Cowboys and Broncos). Plus, three of the Bears’ five wins have come by five-plus points, including their last-second 47-42 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.
The farther the Giants fall, the more likely they are to lose lopsided games, especially against on-the-rise clubs like the Bears.
Tyrone Tracy is the Giants’ lead back, and he is a capable rusher and receiver, which is why he should put up 61-plus all-purpose yards against Chicago, which ranks 26th in the NFL in yards-against per game (368.8).
Giants vs. Bears moneyline odds analysis
The Bears are about -220 moneyline favorites to defeat the Giants on Sunday, meaning they have an implied probability of about 67%.
The Giants are 5-21 in their past 26 games. Coach Brian Daboll is sitting squarely on the hot seat. The Giants have only ever replaced one coach midseason, Ben McAdoo in 2017, so Daboll is likely to coach at least through the end of the season.
But it’s highly unlikely, especially without two star-caliber skill position players like Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers, that the Giants will go to Chicago and win.
Why the Bears could win as the favorite
Best odds: -218 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Bears can win by exploiting the Giants’ defense. Sure, Brian Burns is having an All-Pro season, with an NFL-best 11 sacks, but the rest of New York’s defense has been gashed, especially over the past three weeks.
Plus, QB Caleb Williams has been hot, accruing 280+ passing yards in consecutive games and topping 250 air yards in three of Chicago’s past four. The Giants’ defense has been on par with that of the league-worst Bengals. Only Cincinnati, Dallas and Pittsburgh allow more yards per game than New York.
The Bears put up 576 yards of total offense Sunday, and though they may not do that again, they should light up the struggling Giants D.
Why the Giants could win as the underdog
Best odds: +190 at Fanatics Sportsbook
The Giants can win if Jaxson Dart can use his will. Dart has been one of the few bright spots in another dismal year, and the QB is coming off a 191-yard, two-touchdown game in which he also scored once on the ground and rushed for 56 yards against the 49ers.
Truth be told, the Giants need to keep Dart upright so he can keep progressing, and that’s no guarantee with the reckless abandon with which he plays. But the Bears’ defense is surrendering more points per game (28.4) than the Giants (27.7), which means there could be a shootout if Dart can make some plays Sunday.
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