Lions vs. Commanders NFL prediction, picks and best bets: Can Detroit dominate in revenge spot?
After dropping a narrow game to the Minnesota Vikings last week, the Detroit Lions (5-3) surrendered their spot atop the NFC North.
While first place in the division now belongs to the Packers, all four NFC North teams are in contention with half of the season left to play.
Now, Detroit has an opportunity to not only return to the win column but also get revenge on the Washington Commanders (3-6), who knocked it out in the divisional round of last season’s playoffs.
The Lions are a sizable 7.5-point road favorite over Washington, while the over/under is 49.5 points, with -110 odds on both sides.
Take a look at our Lions vs. Commanders predictions, picks, and best bets for the Week 10 NFL matchup.
Lions vs. Commanders Predictions and best bets
- Detroit Lions team total over 29.5 points: -113 at FanDuel
- Marcus Mariota over 0.5 interceptions: -135 at BetMGM
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
Detroit Lions over 29.5 points
The last four weeks have served as an open season for anybody playing Washington, as the Commanders’ opponents have averaged just shy of 34 points per game.
Now, the Commanders host the Lions, who score the second-most points per game in the NFL and have the fifth-best offensive grade (per Pro Football Focus).
The Commanders rank 29th in opponent passing yards per game and are dead-last in opponent completion percentage and opponent points per play over their past three games.
Further, they rank in the bottom five in sack percentage over the last three weeks and have the sixth-lowest QB hurry percentage in 2025, meaning that Detroit will have the perfect matchup against a defense that can’t exploit its poor offensive line play.
Marcus Mariota over 0.5 interceptions
Mariota has been picked off four times in his past three appearances, not including last week’s late-game barrage of handoffs to run out the clock.
Unfortunately for Mariota, he will be facing one of the better defenses in the NFL.
As a matter of fact, the Lions have the fourth-highest-graded defense and rank fifth in opponent interception percentage.
Since this game has blowout potential, as evidenced by the 7.5-point spread, Mariota will be forced to throw more than he is comfortable with, which could result in mistakes.
Lions vs. Commanders moneyline odds analysis
Why the Lions could win as the favorite
Best odds: -430 at FanDuel
Detroit might not be the juggernaut it was last season, but it still posts close to 30 points per game and has the fifth-highest-graded offense (PFF) and the fourth-highest-graded defense in the NFL.
The Lions have had ups and downs due to their offensive line struggles, but their skill position play is elite.
And they certainly won’t have much to worry about this weekend when they go up against one of the league’s worst defenses.
Why the Commanders could win as the underdog
Best odds: +360 at DraftKings
The rest of this season looks grim for the Washington Commanders, who started their campaign with a rough 3-6 record, and will now be without star quarterback Jayden Daniels for an extended period.
The Commanders will roll out veteran Marcus Mariota under center against Detroit; Mariota has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions in 2025.
Needless to say, that is not a great sign for a team that also has a horrendous defense. It would be shocking if the Commanders found a way to pull out a victory against one of the best offenses in the NFL.
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