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Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Fritz vs. Musetti

The Dallas Open takes place at The Star In Frisco on Wednesday February 5, 2025 in Frisco, Texas. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Dallas Open)

There is no rest for the weary, as Lorenzo Musetti will get right back in action when he makes his Nitto ATP Finals debut on Monday.

Not knowing that Novak Djokovic would eventually withdraw from the year-end championship, Musetti had no choice but to play the Athens ATP 250 this past week in hopes of overtaking Felix Auger-Aliassime for the all-important No. 8 spot. Needing to win the title, Musetti lost to Novak Djokovic 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 in Saturday’s final. However, the Italian got a ticket to Turin when Djokovic announced immediately thereafter that he was not going to play.

Thus Musetti moves into Djokovic’s place as the second highest-ranked participant in Group Jimmy Connors. The 23-year-old will begin his week with a fifth showdown against Taylor Fritz, who trails the head-to-head series 3-2. Musetti won all three of their meetings last season, including a five-setter in the Wimbledon quarterfinals and via a 6-4, 7-5 decision at the Paris Olympics. Fritz, however, won their only previous hard-court clash (indoors, too) 7-6(8), 6-3 at the 2022 Davis Cup Finals.

Fritz has underwhelmed a bit this fall, although he at least compiled a 2-0 record at the Laver Cup (defeated Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev) and finished runner-up to Alcaraz in Tokyo. Relatively early exits from his more recent tournaments have the fourth-ranked American extremely well rested for Turin.

It’s a much different story, of course, for Musetti. The world No. 9 played a trio of three-setters in Athens and his championship match against Djokovic lasted two hours and 59 minutes. It’s hard to envision Musetti having anything left in the tank.

Pick: Fritz in 2

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