Sam Connon uses DraftKings’ NBA Consistency Sheet to build a four-leg parlay featuring Jaime Jaquez Jr., Stephon Castle, Steven Adams and Ron Holland.
A jam-packed slate of 12 NBA games is set to get underway on Wednesday night, featuring plenty of stars taking the court across the league. Before you place any bets, here is one parlay you can tail as the games tip off.
Using DraftKings’ NBA Consistency Sheets, I built out a parlay of player props for Wednesday night’s action. The tool features players’ averages, win percentages, home-road splits and a brand-new matchup grade, all of which can be adjusted to account for different sample sizes and prop markets. Balancing each of those factors against each other, here’s a breakdown of how each four legs look in the sheet:
Spurs G Stephon Castle
Pick: Stephon Castle O 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-114)
Castle has an 80% win percentage this season and a 100% win percentage over his last five games when it comes to clearing 28.5 points + rebounds + assists. On the whole this year, Castle is averaging 31.9 points + rebounds + assists, a figure that jumps up to 33.6 over his last five.
Add to that a favorable matchup against the Warriors – which the Consistency Sheet has graded as an A+ this regular season – and there’s reason to believe Castle will break through as an all-around threat once again.
The 21-year-old guard has scored double-digit points in all 10 of his appearances this season, and has dealt out at least 11 assists in each of his last three games. Castle is also averaging 5.7 rebounds per game, consistently helping to boost his PRA totals.
Heat F Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Pick: Jaime Jaquez Jr. O 15.5 points (-115)
Through 11 games this season, Jaquez is averaging 17.5 points per game. He has a 64% win percentage when it comes to clearing 15.5 points, which drops to 60% over his last five. However, Jaquez already scored 22 points against the Cavaliers on Monday, and some data from the DraftKings Consistency Sheet suggests he could do it again on Wednesday.
Cleveland poses an A+ matchup grade for Jaquez, based on a full-season sample size.
With Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo still out, Miami’s offense is going to run through Jaquez. He has attempted at least eight free throws in three separate games, and he has taken at least 12 shots from the field in eight of his last 10 games. Jaquez isn’t just a one-trick pony as a scorer, though, as he is getting 29.8 minutes per game thanks to his abilities as a passer, rebounder and defender. The Heat needs Jaquez to perform in order to win, and all signs point towards him clearing 15.5 points again along the way.
Pistons F Ron Holland II
Pick: Ron Holland II U 16.5 points (-109)
On the other end of the spectrum, Ron Holland II has a tough matchup against the Bulls. DraftKings’ Consistency Sheet is giving Holland a D- matchup with Chicago, based on their full regular season production.
Even if Holland had a more favorable opponent on the slate for Wednesday, it would be difficult to depend on a scoring explosion from him. Taking the under on Holland at 16.5 points carries a 91% win percentage this season and a 100% win percentage over his last five. Holland is averaging 9.3 points per game on the year, but just 7.0 over his last five games. While Tobias Harris’ continued absence is surely influencing the boosted expectations for Holland, he shot a combined 4-for-19 when he filled in as a starter on Sunday and Monday.
Holland’s only hope of breaking out is based around him catching fire from deep. He is shooting just 30.8% from beyond the arc this season and 27.8% in November. The Bulls boast a top-10 defense in terms of limiting 3-point shooters this year, which doesn’t bode well for Holland either.
Rockets C Steven Adams
Pick: Steven Adams O 7.5 rebounds (+109)
Adams is averaging 8.9 total rebounds per game this season, boasting a 75% win percentage when it comes to clearing 7.5 rebounds. On top of that, Adams and the Rockets are going head-to-head with the Wizards. Looking at the full-season rebounding numbers for centers, Washington presents an A+ matchup in this market. The Wizards rank dead-last in the NBA with 51.0 rebounds per game, and Adams is primed to take advantage.
The 32-year-old ranks No. 1 with 4.8 offensive rebounds a night, as well as boasting the best offensive rebound percentage and total rebound percentage in the league. Adams even cleared 7.5 rebounds when he had a D+ matchup with the Spurs last Friday, so an A+ matchup could open the door for a particularly smart play.
Combined odds: +1306
