Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Dyson Daniels, Pacers-Suns, Immanuel Quickley)

Thursday’s NBA action features a shorter slate with just six teams taking the floor ahead of Friday’s NBA Cup action.

Here’s a quick look at the matchups on the docket for Nov. 13:

Even though we only have three games on Thursday, I still have a few best bets, including player props for a pair of guards that are thriving in the assist department.

This has been a strong week in Peter’s Points, as we’ve moved this season’s record to 12 picks over .500 while sitting up nearly three units. 

Let’s build on it tonight with these three plays!  

Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dyson Daniels OVER 6.5 Assists (-139)

Reigning Most Improved Player Dyson Daniels has taken over a lot of the point guard duties for the Hawks with Trae Young out, and he’s thriving in the role.

In the last seven games, Daniels has cleared 6.5 assists four times, picking up eight, 13, eight and eight assists over his last four games. He played less than 27 minutes on Wednesday, yet he still finished with eight dimes.

Overall this season, Daniels is averaging 5.6 assists on 10.4 potential assists per game, but both of those numbers have skyrocketed with Young out.

The former lottery pick is averaging 7.3 assists and 12.9 potential assists per game in his last eight games (including the Brooklyn game where Young was injured in the first quarter). He’s picked up at least six dimes in seven of those eight contests.

I think Daniels is a worthy prop target on Thursday against a Utah team that ranks 25th in defensive rating, 25th in opponent points per game and 27th in opponent assists per game.

Immanuel Quickley OVER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-123)

I bet this prop for Immanuel Quickley earlier this week, and he came through with an eight-rebound, five-assist showing in a win over the Brooklyn Nets.

Now, Quickley is actually set at a better price (-123) to clear this line on Thursday against the Cavs.

I think this is a massive value, as the Raptors guard is averaging 4.7 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game this season, combining for 10 or more rebounds and assists in nine of his 11 games.

Cleveland is a much better team than Brooklyn, but it does rank just 23rd in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game and 20th in opponent assists per game.

Plus, Quickley is averaging 8.5 rebound chances and 10.1 potential assists per game this season. So, he only needs to convert a little more than half of those to go OVER this prop on Thursday. 

Phoenix Suns -4.5 (-108) vs. Indiana Pacers

Fresh off of an impressive road win over the Dallas Mavericks, the Phoenix Suns are a solid bet on the second night of a back-to-back against the Indiana Pacers.

I’m hedging that Devin Booker will play on the second night of a back-to-back, especially since the Suns have a chance to move to 8-5 this season against an Indiana team that is just 1-10 overall. 

Phoenix has won four games in a row, and it’s been elite at home, going 5-1 straight up and a perfect 6-0 against the spread. The Pacers, on the other hand, are 0-6 on the road and just 2-4 ATS, posting an average scoring margin of -17.2 points in those six games.

One trend I’ve followed closely – and bet a lot – this season is the Suns’ numbers at home. Phoenix ranks sixth in net rating (+11.7) and fourth in defensive rating (106.4) at home this season. For comparison, it falls to 23rd in defensive rating (120.7) and 21st in net rating (-7.6) on the road. 

The Pacers have a road net rating of -17.1 (28th in the NBA), and even with Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell back, I’m not sold on them staying in this game. Indiana allowed 152 points in a blowout loss to the Utah Jazz on Tuesday, and the Suns have a much more talented team with Booker leading the way.

I’ll lay the points with the Suns as they look to move to 7-0 against the spread at home.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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