Turin sets the stage for the 2025 ATP Finals, where the world’s best clash for season-ending supremacy and bettors hunt for value in every match. Home favorite — and defending champion — Jannik Sinner headlines a loaded field that includes Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Lorenzo Musetti. Unfortunately, Novak Djokovic decided not to play after winning a title in Athens over the weekend.
We’re almost through round-robin play at this fast indoor tournament. However, we’re still looking for unique angles for side, total, and prop bettors looking to close the tennis year on a high note. Let’s get into some picks for Friday, November 14.
RELATED: Check out the VSiN picks page for picks and best bets from all of our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alexander Zverev
Our VSiN betting splits show that Zverev opened as a -171 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. However, despite the fact that most of the bets have come in on the German, things moved the other way early on. I’m not talking about the most significant reverse line movement in the world, but there was at least some of it. And this is a match in which I already like Auger-Aliassime’s chances.
Zverev has a 6-3 lead in this head-to-head series, but Auger-Aliassime got him at the US Open. That was a match in which Zverev was dealing with something physically, but he hasn’t exactly been healthy over the last couple of weeks either.
Auger-Aliassime is going to come to the court with a confidence that he can get the job done, and there’s no reason to think that he can’t. These two both hold at absurdly high clips on hard courts. Zverev is up at 86.7% over the last 52 weeks; Auger-Aliassime is up at 86.5%. This will very likely be a match that is decided late in some tightly-contested sets — and we could even see a tiebreaker or two. That means that this match will likely come down to who plays big points better. Well, Auger-Aliassime is a little more aggressive than Zverev on a good day. He’ll be more aggressive when things get tight, too. Also, the Canadian comes into this match with very little pressure on him to advance — he barely made it into the field. But the weight of the world will be on Zverev, who is expected to make the semifinals.
I just don’t view this as a 60-40 match for Zverev. I’d say it’s a little more like 55-45. With that in mind, I like the value on Auger-Aliassime to win this at +150. I don’t think he should be available at much longer than +120 considering everything we have seen the last couple of weeks. Auger-Aliassime was one of the hottest players on the planet before arriving in Turin. And he recaptured his form after losing the first set of his match against Ben Shelton in group play.
Bet: Auger-Aliassime ML (+150)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
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