Autumn Nations Series: Ireland v Australia, Aviva Stadium, Saturday, 8.10pm – Live on RTÉ 2 & TNT Sports 1
The footballers have put it up to them now and how, both players and fans alike. The Aviva was a fever long into Thursday night and the atmosphere will hardly scale those heights just two nights later. But it surely can only inspire the rugby team, and supporters as well.
Granted the stakes of world ranking points and a better seeding for next month’s World Cup draw aren’t as high. Nor could the Wallabies possibly reproduce such a pantomime villain. But in what is likely to be Joe Schmidt’s last competitive visit to the stadium he knows best and succeeded in most, Ireland could do with some evidence to back up their belief that they are still one of the world’s best sides. Both for themselves and the supporters.
After the giddy heights of 2022 and 2023, perhaps Irish rugby has become a little too expectant, a little too entitled. There was always the likelihood of Ireland not maintaining those levels consistently. The rebuild has perhaps not been as radical as the impatient might have wished, but in part thanks to retirements and injuries, only 11 of the matchday 23 of the World Cup quarter-final do so here.
Perhaps growing a little impatient himself, while also continuing the rebuild, Andy Farrell has gone further than he might have done. This adds to the caveats, namely how will Paddy McCarthy go on debut, ditto Sam Prendergast following his recall, and Mack Hansen in his first Test at fullback.
There is at least cover for the first two in Andrew Porter and Jack Crowley, less so it would seem for Hansen, but the roving role of fullback looks tailor-made for such a footballer and adds to the attacking potential of this team.
True, the lineout returns and attacking metrics have dropped, with the quality of passing and handling errors the most worrisome aspect of last week’s 41-10 win over Japan.
But the lineout and attacking rhythm did improve palpably as last week’s match wore on, and there also remain world-class players such as Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, Tadhg Beirne and Caelan Doris in the pack, as well as Jamison Gibson-Park.
A big collective performance would not be a surprise.
Joe Schmidt has sought to refresh his side with six changes to his starting XV. Photograph: Andrew Conan/Inpho
This looks like a very significant game, a reference point of sorts, both with next week’s daunting visit of the all-conquering Springboks in mind and also Ireland’s future trajectory.
History has taught us to beware of any Australian side on the rebound from a chastening defeat, albeit the Wallabies look weary as well as wounded. Aside from the demands of an exhausting calendar year – this is their 14th of 15 Tests in 2025 – the quadrennial visit of the Lions is as emotionally and mentally draining as it is physically.
Schmidt has sought to refresh his side with six changes to his starting XV, while bringing in half a dozen players to the matchday 23 who were not involved in last week’s 26-19 defeat by Italy in Udine. Yet 18 of this 23 were in the matchday squad for the first Test against the Lions back in July.
That doesn’t include Rob Valetini, who made such an impact in the first half of the second Test, and is restored alongside the poacher-king Fraser McReight and their talismanic captain and just all-round quality number eight Harry Wilson.
Look elsewhere and this team is only marginally less experienced and is full of quality, be it the restored Max Jorgensen at fullback, Harry Porter on the wing and the golden boy Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, who might well be revived by Len Ikitau’s return.
Having been their fifth starting 10 of the year last week in Udine, Carter Gordon only went and suffered a quad strain, so Schmidt has summoned James O’Connor again (given he had just been holidaying in Morocco, this hardly constates coming in from the cold.)
These Wallabies have been rejuvenated under Schmidt compared with what he inherited from Eddie Jones, but they don’t have the strength in depth to maintain consistency or durability over the most exacting schedule of any side in the world this year.
So it is that as well as Udine, 2025 has seen the Wallabies beat the Lions and record a first win over the Springboks in Ellis Park since 1963 after a remarkable recovery from 22-0 down in the first round of the Rugby Championship.
Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii training at Blackrock RFC on Thursday. Photograph: Tom Maher/Inpho
Coming in the wake of nearly winning the second Test against the Lions and then winning the third, Australia were highly competitive against South Africa in Cape Town a week later and the beat Argentina at home. Looking back, that five-game sequence seems like the peak period of their season and since then they have lost five of their last six, the sole win being by 19-15 with a much-changed side against Japan in Tokyo.
Yet if there was to be one game on this tour which might ignite their motivational juices and their best display, then it could well be this one. After all, Ireland were bulk suppliers to the Lions’ 2-1 series win (10 of the second Test 23 are in Saturday night’s matchday squad) with plenty of Australians believing they were robbed in that pivotal and memorable Melbourne clash.
Certainly, Farrell has experienced enough of the Australian mentality to expect their best and, mindful of the hurt they’ll be feeling, something even better than in the Lions series.
Farrell cited Ireland’s hard-fought 22-19 win in the corresponding game last year and the Wallabies’ performances against the Lions.
Ireland may also have won five of the last six, but none of those victories were by more than five points and three were by a kick, as when Ross Byrne came in from the wilderness to land a 45-metre clutch penalty in 2022, just a week after Australia had lost to Italy.
These Wallabies are even more dangerous. The core of this side beat the Lions and the Springboks after all. If they rediscover their best selves, then a reprise of Ireland’s last two performances won’t be good enough.
Yet the Wallabies’ graph seems to have at the least plateaued, whereas by rights Ireland ought to be shaking off individual and collective rustiness with each passing game. There was also enough evidence in the second half last week, and in the potentially exciting make-up of this team, to make you believe they can now start to back up their words with actions.
IRELAND: Mack Hansen (Connacht); Tommy O’Brien (Leinster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster), James Lowe (Leinster); Sam Prendergast (Leinster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Paddy McCarthy (Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster); James Ryan (Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster); Ryan Baird (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster, capt), Jack Conan (Leinster).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Andrew Porter (Leinster), Thomas Clarkson (Leinster), Nick Timoney (Ulster), Cian Prendergast (Connacht), Craig Casey (Munster), Jack Crowley (Munster), Bundee Aki (Connacht).
AUSTRALIA: Max Jorgensen (NSW Waratahs); Filipo Daugunu (Queensland Reds), Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii (NSW Waratahs), Len Ikitau (ACT Brumbies), Harry Potter (Western Force); James O’Connor (Leicester Tigers), Jake Gordon (NSW Waratahs); Angus Bell (NSW Waratahs), Matt Faessler (Queensland Reds), Allan Alaalatoa (ACT Breumbies); Jeremy Williams (Western Force), Tom Hooper (Exeter Chiefs); Rob Valetini (ACT Brumbies), Fraser McReight (Queensland Reds), Harry Wilson (Queensland Reds, capt).
Replacements: Billy Pollard (ACT Brumbies), Tom Robertson (Western Force), Zane Nonggorr (Queensland Reds), Nick Frost (ACT Brumbies), Carlo Tizzano (Western Force), Ryan Lonergan (ACT Brumbies), Tane Edmed (NSW Waratahs), Andrew Kellaway NSW Waratahs).
Referee: Karl Dickson (RFU)
Overall head-to-head: Played 38, Ireland 15 wins, Australia 22 wins, 1 draw.
Last five meetings – 2018: Australia 18 Ireland 9; Australia 21 Ireland 26; Australia 16 Ireland 20. 2022: Ireland 13 Australia 10. 2024: Ireland 22 Australia 19.
Five-game form guide – Ireland: Won 22-17 v Italy (a); Won 34-5 v Georgia (a); Won 106-7 v Portugal (a); Lost v New Zealand 13-23 (Chicago); Won 41-10 v Japan (h).
Australia: Lost 24-33 v New Zealand (a); Lost 14-28 v New Zealand (h); Won 19-15 v Japan (a); Lost 7-25 v England (h); Lost 19-26 v Italy (a).
Betting: 1-5 Ireland, 19-1 Draw, 7-2 Australia. Handicap odds (Australia +10 pts) Evs Ireland, 16-1 Draw, Evs Australia.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
