Cooper Albers details his best bet for Erin Blanchfield vs. Tracy Cortez at UFC 322.
Six years ago, Invicta FC flyweights Erin Blanchfield and Tracy Cortez squared off at Memorial Hall in Kansas City, where the latter edged out a narrow split decision victory.
On Saturday night, the now-UFC contenders — ranked No. 4 and No. 8, respectively — meet again under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden in New York City.
The rematch will take place during the prelims of UFC 322, ahead of Valentina Shevchenko’s 125-pound title defense against Zhang Weili in the co-main event.
Blanchfield returns after a last-second cancellation kept her sidelined for a year, while Cortez comes in fresh off a unanimous decision victory in June.
Still, Blanchfield enters as a heavy -258 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Cortez sits as a +210 underdog. The total is set at 2.5 rounds. Here’s my best bet for Saturday night’s flyweight showdown.
Erin Blanchfield vs. Tracy Cortez Preview
Earlier this year, Blanchfield (13-2) was just minutes away from her Octagon walk when her opponent, Maycee Barber, withdrew due to a health emergency backstage. The sudden cancellation kept Blanchfield out of action for over a year. Before that, she had earned a massive rebound victory over former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas, winning by unanimous decision (48-47) — landing a pair of takedowns and logging nearly nine minutes of ground control.
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, “Cold Blooded” Blanchfield is an elite grappler who steps on the gas pedal from the opening bell. She lands 5.23 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy and relentlessly hunts takedowns, averaging 1.86 per fight. Opponents rarely test her on the ground, as Blanchfield boasts an 80% takedown defense with multiple submission victories.
Cortez (12-2), however, could take the path less traveled. Also a skilled grappler — and perhaps even a superior wrestler — she matches Blanchfield’s takedown aggression and lands 2.19 per fight. She’s coming off a major bounce back from her loss to Namajunas in July 2024, dominating Viviane Araujo with a unanimous decision win last June. (30-27), where she secured three takedowns and accumulated over eight minutes of control time.
Erin Blachfield vs. Tracy Cortez Pick, Best Bet
While Cortez’s wrestling pedigree could present a unique challenge, count on Blanchfield to press on through the storm with relentless pressure and takedown attempts. Even if she can’t bring down Cortez — who has a formidable 62% career takedown defense — Blanchfield’s rapid pace should give her an edge on the feet.
Less than half of Blanchfield’s 13 wins have come inside the distance, and against an opponent who’s only been finished once — in her first professional fight, no less — she’s likely to secure a victory on the judges’ scorecards.
Best Bet: Erin Blanchfield To Win By Decision (-145)
