Performance Preview: Who’s Ready to Shine for the Bucs in Buffalo, Rachaad White or Cade Otton?

Scott Smith: RB Rachaad White

If I really wanted to take advantage of pole position here and give myself a shot at consecutive wins, I would take Baker Mayfield, who I just have a feeling is in for a big day in Buffalo, regardless of the weather. However, I feel like we’ve had an unwritten rule not to take the quarterback in this competition because it’s just too easy and obvious. So instead, I’ll take one of his backfield mates.

Let’s start with the Bills’ run defense which is ranked…/checks notes…30th in the NFL, giving up 147.6 yards per game! Well, that looks appetizing. The Bills are also allowing 5.47 yards per carry, which is second-worst in the league. Tampa Bay’s offense just ran for 113 yards and 5.4 per tote against the Patriots, who came into Raymond James Stadium with the league’s top-ranked run defense. It sure seems like they should be able to do even better against the Bills.

So why take Rachaad White over Sean Tucker, given that Tucker has led the team in rushing in each of the last two games. Well, the first part is just a gut feeling; I just think White is due for a breakout game. After Bucky Irving went down in Week Four, White responded with 71 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns against Seattle and 82 yards and a score against San Francisco. He has cooled off considerably since then but I’m predicting a rebound this Sunday.

In addition, while Tucker has definitely eaten into White’s handoff totals, the latter is still seeing the larger chunk of playing time. He had 50 snaps last Sunday against New England to 22 for Tucker. He’s also the superior pass-catcher of the two, so is more likely to add value in the aerial attack. I probably have a better shot of this happening if this is a close game with multiple two-minute drills and hurry-up situations, because the coaching staff clearly feels more comfortable with White in the game in such conditions. Obviously, I’ll be thrilled if either of those two backs has a big game against the Bills, but I’ll be doubly thrilled if White delivers the win for me in this competition.

Brianna Dix: TE Cade Otton

There are many players I could have gone with this week but I have a gut feeling about Cade Otton. Last week against the Patriots, he tied his career high in catches (nine) and finished with the second-most receiving yards in a game in his career (82). While the Bills have the third-best pass defense in the league, I think Otton will create mismatches and will take advantage of one-on-one opportunities when Emeka Egbuka is doubled. Otton has carved out a larger role on offense as a pass-catcher in recent weeks with the return of Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke to the lineup and it seems like he will have another breakout game against the Bills.

In Week 10, he showcased his savviness on sift blocks, creating seams for Sean Tucker and as a pass-catcher on options. Otton has a knack for finding the voids in zone and is a go-to target for Baker Mayfield over the middle of the field. He boxes out defenders on hitches and generates yards-after-catch with his physicality. Otton can run a full route tree and consistently gets to the proper depth with an understanding of how to generate leverage against man. He plays with a competitive disposition and I would love to see Otton have himself a day at Highmark Stadium.

Considering the Bills have given up the fewest receiving yards to tight ends of any club in the league with 242, this is quite the gamble but I am going to stick to my intuition: Cade Otton will have a big game!