Ross Williams previews two matches from the NFL on Sunday, with a trio of bets making his staking plan.
NFL betting tips: Week 11
2pts Pittsburgh Steelers v Cincinnati Bengals over 48.5 total match points at 10/11 (General)
2pts Tennessee Titans Under 15.5 total points at 10/11 (General)
0.5pts Houston Texans to win to nil at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Steelers v Cincinnati Bengals
Trends are a huge factor in NFL betting and there’s a clear one that’s tough to ignore this weekend.
The Bengals are taking on Pittsburgh in a divisional clash with serious ramifications. The Steelers are hunting a win to maintain their position atop the AFC North, while it’s pretty much last chance saloon for Cincinnati, who are nursing a fairly measly 3-6 record.
In other circumstances, 3-6 at this stage would have already signalled curtains. However, due to the weak nature of the AFC North division right now, a win on Sunday would leave the Bengals just one victory adrift of Pittsburgh and a playoff berth. With Joe Burrow potentially in line for a return in the coming weeks, which immediately catapults the potential of this team, the stakes remain high for Cincy this weekend.
So, about that trend.
The Bengals haven’t been winning consistently of late, but their match-ups have consistently been must – watch. Due to the explosiveness they have on offence – with the likes of Ja’Marr Chase leading the way – and their vulnerability on defence, where the Bengals go, points follow.
In Cincinatti’s last three games, a simply remarkable 230 points have been scored, at an average of 76.7 per game. This includes the last meeting between these two teams, which ended in a slender 33-31 win for Cincinnati.
In the absence of significant changes to the Bengals line-up, and the importance of Cincinnati claiming a win this weekend, it’s tough to ignore the ‘over’.
The total match points line is currently set at 48.5 and every recent metric points to a likelihood that it will be eclipsed. Of the nine Bengals games so far this season, seven have gone over the total and they’re on a streak of five-straight.
The numbers aren’t as compelling on Pittsburgh’s side, but they’ve cleared the ‘over’ more times than not this season (5-4) and the sheer fact that these two teams put up 64 points just four weeks ago is evidence that this should be a strong selection.
Tennessee Titans v Houston Texans
Week 11 throws up a divisional rematch that few will be racing home to watch, but it does throw up some punting potential.
Back in week four, the Tennessee Titans produced arguably the worst performance of the season, succumbing 26-0 to their rival Houston Texans.
It was a bleak afternoon for the Titans and I’m sure the message in camp this week will have been one of redemption, but I just don’t think they have the capability.
I like the Texans to hold the worst team in the NFL to fewer than 15 points on Sunday for a multitude of reasons.
Obviously, that aforementioned week four match-up is the jumping-off point as it displayed Tennessee’s match-up nightmare perfectly. But there’s more to it than that.
Due to their 4-5 record – which has them four games off the pace in the AFC South division – no one is really talking about the Texans on a week-to-week basis. Their offence is faltering and postseason hopes are practically non-existent, so there are very few Houston-related headlines doing the rounds at the moment.
It may surprise you, then, to learn that statistically Houston actually possess the best defence in the NFL.
They’ve allowed the fewest rushing yards, the fourth-fewest passing yards and – crucially – the fewest points (150) in the league this season.
Of course, schedule plays into these metrics, but nine games is a decent case-study and it’s undeniable that this Texans’ defence is a very tough nut to crack.
On the other hand, the Titans’ offence is comfortably the worst around. In Cam Ward’s first season as quarterback, Tennessee are averaging just 14.4 points per game (a whole point less than the Raiders, the league’s second-worst offensive unit) and they’re severely struggling to move the ball down the field.
Only the Bengals have racked up fewer rushing yards this campaign and the Titans’ average of 162.8 passing yards per game ranks 31st of 32, only propped up by an historically-hapless New York Jets passing attack.
All told, the Titans average just 244 total yards of offence per game in 2025.
Now, offensive drives in football don’t always start on the one-yard-line but, if they did, the Titans’ yardage average would be the perfect indicator of why scoring beyond 15 points will be a struggle for them. They may clear the 100 yards required for a touchdown twice, but the 44 yards remaining wouldn’t even put them in field goal territory.
It’s a bleak picture for the Titans at the best of times but when you add the Texans to the mix – the best-performing defence in football, who have already shut them out once this season – this looks like a very long day at the office for Tennessee.
Could lightning even strike twice? It’s a longshot – no team has recorded double-shoutouts over a rival since 2002 – but if it’s going to happen again, it would be safe to wager it’ll be the #1 defence against the #32 offence. Stranger things have happened.
Posted at 1355 GMT on 16/11/25
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