College Football Playoff bracket prediction: Alabama clings to final at-large bid after loss to Oklahoma

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College Football Playoff bracket prediction: Alabama clings to final at-large bid after loss to Oklahoma

Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma drops them to the last at-large team in the field. Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images

Welcome to my College Football Playoff projections, which will be published weekly through the end of the season, updated and adjusted after each Saturday’s results. Check out the projected field according to Austin Mock’s model, which will look different from my opinion-based selections.

In the aftermath of what’s shaping up to be the fourth No. 1 vs. No. 2 battle in Big Ten history, with Ohio State and Indiana on a collision course in the Big Ten Championship Game, arguments will ensue over who should be No. 2 in the final College Football Playoff rankings. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter whether it’s the SEC champion or the Big Ten runner-up. But what does matter is whether the SEC title game runner-up keeps Texas Tech at bay for the final first-round bye. Right now, we’ll say yes. In three weeks, we might have a different answer.

If Texas A&M — which fell to fourth in my predicted bracket this week after escaping a South Carolina upset bid — were to face No. 5 seed Texas Tech, it could make for the hottest Cotton Bowl ticket since the old Southwest Conference sent its champion to Dallas every year. Considering both teams are SWC alums and former Big 12 rivals, the secondary market would sizzle.

Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma not only elevated the Sooners into the CFP picture; it sent the Tide tumbling to the final at-large spot. The result led to four big-time first-round matchups, beginning with Alabama traveling west to Ole Miss. It’s no longer an annual game on the SEC schedule, but this meeting would heighten the series’ importance tenfold.

Oklahoma at Notre Dame would garner the best TV ratings of the opening weekend, while a Texas Tech-North Texas first-round game would have regional appeal. Every weekend, we’re playing spin the bottle to see which Group of 5 champion gets the bid, and it always lands on a different team from the American. If we do it again next week, it’s going to Sun Belt frontrunner James Madison.

Two games carry the most CFP significance in Week 13. Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech is not only an ACC Championship Game eliminator; it will crush one of those teams’ CFP hopes. USC at Oregon ranks as the most important game to the bigger picture. With one win over their final two matchups, the Ducks should secure a CFP bid for the second straight season. The Trojans need to beat Oregon to keep the Big Ten’s chances of securing four CFP berths alive.

Five upcoming games with CFP significance: Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech; BYU at Cincinnati; Missouri at Oklahoma; USC at Oregon; Kentucky at Vanderbilt.

Nov 16, 2025