With the data fog still hanging over US markets, investors not so much slowed down but stalled on Friday.
The key S&P 500 index was marginally lower (down less than 0.1%), the Dow fell (-0.6%) and the Nasdaq wobbled around and ended up just 0.1%.
The S&P 500 had dropped by as much as 1.4% before clawing back the losses.
The unease was global.
Asia was much weaker on Friday (the ASX down 1.4%), European and UK stocks opened sharply lower on Friday but generally recovered somewhat to finish around 1% down.
The big “known unknowns” worrying markets are what will the US economy look like when the best part of two months data gets released and what will Nvidia’s results deliver this week.
The data fog, that prompted US Fed Chair Jerome Powell to muse he’s inclined to slow down any rate changes, isn’t about to lift quickly despite the federal government shutdown technically ending at the point of a presidential sharpie last week.
White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett noted there is doubt about the publication of October’s inflation data and the employment report for that month won’t include the jobless rate, because the household survey from which it is calculated wasn’t conducted.
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced they would begin releasing data skipped over during the shutdown starting next week.
Employment data for September, which had been scheduled for release on October 3, will be published on November 20.
Nonetheless, there were those willing to take a punt on “buying on the dip” in the tech sector ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly results on Wednesday.
“We’ve got a huge event next week with Nvidia,” Horizon Investments head of research Mike Dickson told Reuters.
“If Nvidia disappoints, they will be punished. But I also think that — kind of like you’re seeing today — you’ll see dip buyers come back in pretty quickly and stabilize things.”
Alphabet jumped 1.7% in after-hours trading after Berkshire Hathaway revealed a new $US4.3 billion stake in the Google parent in what was the giant investor’s last SEC filing with Warren Buffett at the helm.
Mr Buffett has never been much of a tech/AI bull but conceded he “blew it” by not investing earlier.
Berkshire Hathaway’s Alphabet purchase was largely funded by the continued sell down of Apple shares which Mr Buffett sees as more of a consumer company.
The increasingly “hawkish” commentary out of the Fed is having an impact with the betting on a December rate cut.
US Treasury yields rose as persistent concerns about inflation saw the odds on a December rate cut continue to drift from almost a certainty a month ago to something more like a50:50 bet.
That saw the US dollar strengthen against the likes of the Euro, although the little Aussie battler held up, edging 0.1% higher to 65.38 US cents.
The diming likelihood of a rate cut also saw gold slip around 3% but still hold above $US4,000/ounce.
The global oil benchmark Brent crude gained 2.2% to $US64.39/barrel after yet another Russian oil terminal blew up.
The crypto world couldn’t find any traction with the total market capitalisation dropping around $US1 trillion since peaking on October 7.
Bitcoin is in “bear” territory having fallen 20% in the past month.
This morning it briefly slipped below $US94,000 for the first time in six months.
