Thursday Night Football comes to us tonight from Houston, Texas, where the Texans will host the Bills. This is a game of playoff implications where both teams fight to get back into their divisional races. Both of these teams appear to have deeper depth charts, especially in the passing game. Between depth and injuries, this makes for a contentious DFS slate. It will require a deep breakdown and that is exactly what we will do today.
For every DFS slate, I do my own projections for each player and I also add a confidence and upside scale. Does player x have high-upside to outperform his projection, or not? That helps me determine the best plays and this week, fewer players meet the “full-go” rating.
James Cook and Woody Marks are two of few “full-go” players on this slate.
The Buffalo Bills are allowing 153 rushing yards per game.
That’s the second most in the NFL (Bengals).
Woody Marks is going to FEAST on TNF 🍽️ pic.twitter.com/QUVp7qzxjY
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) November 19, 2025
The Texans are 9th versus Running Backs. The Bills are 1st in Total Rushing Offense, so they do trump the defense. Cook has (7) Rushing Touchdowns and the season and has about a 50% chance to score tonight.
The Bills are abysmal versus Running Backs, standing in 31st palce. They are allowing (153.0) Yards per Game, so we love Marks today. He is recently working to over 70% of snaps and may very well score, despite a low-scoring projected output.
Nico Collins is also a “full-go” player. With Mills, Collins should have a Target Share over 30%.
Best MVP/Captain Picks
Josh Allen has got a really tough matchups on his hands tonight. The Texans are the 1st ranked defense versus Quarterbacks, holding their opponents to 190.0 Passing Yards per Game and 19 Rushing Yards per Game. One weakness to expose is where the Texans rank just 25th in Tackling, perhaps giving chance to Allen to still have rushing success.
Allen has (21) Red Zone Rushes this season and (10) Red Zone Rushing Touchdowns, four more than anyone else.
Davis Mills steps in and may suggest regression. He has been great over his two starts, but we must remember that he is still a low-tier NFL Quarterback.
The Bills are 4th versus Quarterbacks and 2nd in Passing Yards Allowed (185.2 per Game). $11,600 may be a bit expensive for a low-end Quarterback.
Josh Allen may be used, not Davis Mills.
Cook has become a victim of Josh Allen. Cook is the clear lead-back in Buffalo, but he has just 53% of Red Zone Rushes for (4) Touchdowns. For this reason, he is not a shoe-in to score in most weeks.
Marks is walking into a very easy matchup, as discussed above. Buffalo is 31st versus the Run and trends to see no improvement. Marks is out-snapping Chubb 2-to-1 in the Red Zone and will have a >40% chance to score tonight.
Woody Marks ($10,400) is a much better pick than James Cook ($12,000)
Khalil Shakir has been used at the highest rate on the Bills (18%), but he lacks big-play ability. Shakir has (9) Red Zone Targets but only (1) Touchdown on 5.6 Yards per Reception.
Josh Palmer and Gabe Davis are interesting plays tonight at cheaper prices. Most Buffalo Wide Receivers will land around the same snap shares. The will all range with 10-15% Target Share’s. They do, however, face a brutal coverage matchup, so we look for boom-or-bust potential, which Palmer and Davis both provide down the field.
Gabe Davis on his 2025 Bills debut: “Felt pretty good being out there for the first time… Just felt right… Felt like it was meant to be… This is the most comfortable I’ve been. Just glad I’ve got the Bills jersey on again.”
He finished with 3 receptions for 40 yards pic.twitter.com/OhDDqjLZ8o
— alex brasky (@alexbrasky) November 16, 2025
Tyrell Shavers has been a good depth piece for Buffalo, but he will have a lower implied Target Share than Palmer and Davis, suggesting that we do not use him.
Nico Collins is one of the higher usage Wide Receivers in the NFL. He projects a target share well over 30% while Buffalo is good, but not elite in coverage. They are 13th versus Wide Receivers.
Jayden Higgins is slowly progressing in his rookie year. He has the same amount of Red Zone Touchdowns as Nico Collins (2) and (5) Targets in that spot. Higgins has (7) Targets in three of his last four games.
Christian Kirk needs volume to succeed, given his (9.0) Yards per Reception. The Texans may lack to volume to feed his upside.
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Knox fills in today for Dalton Kincaid. Per our depth chart analysis, Knox should be a 11-13% Target Share. The Texans are 6th versus Tight Ends, so it can be a tough game for Knox. We would prefer to find the endzone tonight, which can happen, but is unlikely to happen.
Schultz is the number two pass-catcher on the Texans with a 19% Target Share and 48.9 Yards per Game. However, the Bills are the #1 ranked unit versus Tight Ends, making his day more difficult.
Dawson Knox and Dalton Schultz both face tough matchups, suggesting to not use them in DFS.
Gabe Davis $5,000
Davis is back with Buffalo and his role may increase quite fast. The benching of Keon Coleman helps this matter. Davis had a 41% snap share in his Bills debut and soon enough, he could hit 60% or more. He could be underpriced if that workload dives up tonight in tandem with his chemistry with Allen.
Joshua Palmer $4,800
He has a stellar Average Depth of Reception at 15.7 Yards. This makes Palmer a classic boom-or-bust candidate. We will hope that he can catch one deep ball and pay us off. I would not be surprised to see Palmer catch well over his 2.3 Receptions per Game average.
As good as the Texans are, they have a subpar Safety duo, helping that deep-ball ability.
Buffalo and Houston gain (2.5) and (2.6) Sacks per Game, respectively. Buffalo and Houston allow (2.0) and (2.5) Sacks per Game, respectively. This projects the Bills to have a minor pressure advantage. They also get Mills to bear down on.
Buffalo is Top-10 in Takeaways per game. They are 2nd in Total Passing Defense. They are 15th in Yards Allowed and 14th in Points Allowed. They may be a decent option to use against Houston, but their rushing defense does bother me, limiting massive upside.
If Buffalo does get up two scores, it does force the pass and that does help their defense. They are only averaging 0.9x, so I would probably not use them.
Do not use either defense.
Prater is 13/15 on the season, but averaging just (1.5) Attempts per Game, which scares us. He is also to be owned over 50%.
Fairbairn is coming back tonight from his quad injury. His is a must-start in Fantasy Football this week, per our analysis. I do like Fairbairn if you have the salary to afford him.
Start Ka’imi Fairbairn ($6,800)
