Tonight is the night to expect outlier results in the NBA Cup.
All but four teams have played two tournament games.
Point differential is now officially in the minds of those with intentions of making it to Vegas.
While some teams, like Toronto, are nearly a lock to win their group regardless of point differential, others need to start padding their stats in the event of a tiebreaker.
As a refresher, here are the sequential tiebreaker rules:
- Head-to-head record in Group Play
- Point differential in Group Play
- Total points scored in Group Play
- Record from the 2024-25 NBA regular season
- Random draw
If two teams are tied for the group lead at 3-1, their head-to-head record will dictate the group winner.
Should a group have three 3-1 teams or five teams that finish 2-2, this is where point differential gets involved.
During the first year of the NBA Cup, East Group C had three teams finish 3-1.
In Boston’s final game, they knew exactly what score was needed to advance and subsequently played their starters to the final whistle even though it was a 27-point blowout.
In addition to the group winners, a fourth wildcard team advances to the knockout stage.
Of the remaining non-winners, whoever has the highest point differential advances.
This is why tonight’s slate starts to get interesting.
I’ll walk through two scenarios to watch for where I see betting opportunities related to the NBA Cup.
East: Group A – Cleveland
Toronto is currently priced at -2000 on FanDuel to win this group after going 2-0.
Absolutely ‘unbettable’, but with good reason.
The Raptors defeated both Cleveland and Atlanta to open the tourney; the two favourites to win the group.
They now have the 1-13 Wizards and 2-13 Pacers remaining.
Even if Toronto loses one of those two games, they’d still own a 3-1 record.
Cleveland or Atlanta could win outright, but both teams would still have one loss.
Because both their losses are to Toronto, the Raptors would win the tiebreaker due to head-to-head record.
This is where the spotlight turns to the Cavaliers.
Though their chances of winning the group are all but gone (+3000), they are in great position to secure the East wildcard spot.
Even with their loss to Toronto, Cleveland already has a +22 point differential, which is best amongst non-group leaders.
They are 14-point favourites versus a wounded Pacers team tonight and have one final matchup versus Atlanta, which they’d need to win for any shot at advancing.
If the Cavs have any care for this tournament, they should be trying to win tonight’s game by 50.
Too many teams in the other two groups have a chance to pad their stats.
Cleveland needs a massive cushion to have any shot of sneaking in as a wildcard.
Tonight is the game to go for an alternative spread above the -14 line.
West: Group A – Minnesota
This group is fascinating.
Oklahoma City and Minnesota own two of the four shortest lines to advance to the knockout stage (-2500 and -240) even though they’ve only played one and two games each.
The Thunder are getting tons of respect from FanDuel after blowing out Sacramento by 31 points in their opening NBA Cup game.
Their remaining opponents are Utah, Minnesota and Phoenix.
Even if OKC loses to the Timberwolves and subsequently the group, FanDuel’s traders are anticipating big victories in their other two games which likely earns them the wildcard.
So, where’s the opportunity tonight?
Minnesota would be wise to pad their stats and get to 3-0 against Phoenix tonight.
They’re currently 4.5-point favourites.
Here’s the caveat as always with the NBA Cup – how much do these teams actually care?
An older, injury-riddled team like the Clippers would be one I wouldn’t count on to chase point differential.
Typically, I’m hunting younger teams who need the NBA Cup to build up confidence and credibility.
The Timberwolves are young, but they’ve also made two straight Western Conference Finals.
Hence, it’s not a slam dunk that they care.
Prior to the opening slate of the tournament, Anthony Edwards was asked about his thoughts on the NBA Cup.
“We didn’t really understand the rules and stuff but… I still don’t understand the rules, I really don’t care but I think juts winning the games mean more than anything.”
After that pre-game quote, they went on to win by 40.
The next game, they blew out Sacramento by 14 points with Edwards playing all the way to the final minute.
I trust the Minnesota coaching staff to get their team on the same page.
Taking Ant-Man’s quote into consideration, I’d bet on tonight’s matchup two ways.
I’d take a large position on Minnesota moneyline (-186) and then pepper in an alternative spread assuming they’ll try to secure their advancement with a sizeable point differential.
Of the four wildcard winners over the first two NBA Cups, their point differentials ranged from 34 to 46.
The Timberwolves should build up a buffer in the event the Thunder get them for a big win in their next NBA Cup game.
