In a 3-round light heavyweight bout on the main card, Volkan Oezdemir and Alonzo Menifield meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 265 at Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena in Al Rayyan, Qatar. The prelims begin at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card at 1 p.m. ET, also ESPN+. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 265: Oezdemir vs. Menifield odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.
Records: Oezdemir (20-8-0) | Menifield (17-5-1)
This is Oezdemir’s first fight since he suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Carlos Ulberg almost a year ago (Nov. 23, 2024). Oezdemir is 5-7 in his past 12 bouts starting with a title shot loss to Daniel Cormier at UFC 220 (Jan. 20, 2018). He is 3-2 in his last 5 bouts, going back to July 23, 2022. Oezdemir has gone the distance in 4 of the past 6 fights, with a KO/TKO and submission win during the span.
Menifield is coming off a unanimous-decision win over Oumar Sy June 14, following up a split-decision win over Julius Walker Feb. 22. Menifield has gone the distance in 3 of his past 5 fights, with a pair of KO/TKO losses in that span.
Menifield takes the walk to the octagon with a 1-inch reach advantage, while Oezdemir has a 4.95-to-3.79 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Menifield is slightly more accurate with those strikes at 59.50%, to 55.53% for Oezdemir. Both fighters have a takedown average of 0.50, not a huge part of their repertoire, and neither is very good on submissions. Expect this fight to either go the distance, or end via KO/TKO.
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UFC Fight Night 265: Oezdemir vs. Menifield odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:09 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Oezdemir -235 (bet $235 to win $100) | Menifield +190 (bet $100 to win $190)
- Total rounds: 2.5 rounds (Over +115 | Under -150)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)
UFC Fight Night 265: Oezdemir vs. Menifield picks and predictions
MENIFIELD (+190) is worth a roll of the dice for the chance to multiply up at nearly 2 times. He is 6-2-1 in the past 9 bouts, although this is a big step up in competition.
While Oezdemir has gone the distance in 4 of the past 6 bouts, he suffered losses in 3 of those outings. On the flip side, each of Menifield’s last 3 wins were by decision. So, when he leaves it to the judges, he has done enough to wow them.
YES (+150): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is worth a look at plus-money as this fight is, most likely, going to be a toe-to-toe brawl. These guys haven’t been keen on going for the finish lately. Oezdemir was aggressive against Johnny Walker and Bogdan Guskov, picking up first-round wins against both. Plus, as mentioned, he has gone the distance in 4 of the past 6 fights.
Also already mentioned, Menifield has gone the distance in 3 of the past 5 fights. I’m not saying this is going to be a boring fight, but don’t look for the big killshot to be delivered.
OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+115) is not a terrible play if you want a little wiggle room for a possible finish in the second half of Round 3, but the better play is just betting the distance.
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