Are the Denver Nuggets minus two starters vulnerable enough? They are coming off a loss at home to the Sacramento Kings, of all teams, so their guard is up going into Memphis. Nikola Jokić averaged a triple-double last season, and he’s playing on the same wavelength, so there’s no stopping him.
Memphis is trying to stretch its longest win streak of the season to three games. They should have more opportunities to double-team, but must be careful: Peyton Watson could be blossoming as a long-range threat. He’s shooting 39.4 from deep on a low volume, but those numbers may rise now that Aaron Gordon is out for some time.
One advantage the Grizzlies have at home is getting to the line for five more attempts (28.2). They’ll need to keep that up so the Nuggets play against a set defense as much as possible.
Let’s get into the other details.
Making Jokić work on defense
Despite his offensive prowess, Jokić can be a lazy defender, and his best work in this department is on the glass. He has his moments, using his intelligence to disrupt, but he prefers to save himself. Disrupting Watson and co.’s screen navigation would help, so the big Serbian has less time to cover a lot of ground. Pick and pop with Santi Aldama should generate good looks.
Don’t go to the zone against Jonas Valančiūnas
In the past, the best opportunity to climb out of a deficit against the Nuggets came when Jokić took a break. Things are different now. Big Val is too much of a force on the boards and at close range, rendering the scheme ineffective as various teams have learned this season. Especially the 2-3 zone, the most common zone in the NBA, gives up too much space on the perimeter, and Valančiūnas setting handoffs up there for Jamal Murray, who he shares the court with often, will tear anyone apart.
Winning in the trenches
Even with Denver being an average 3-point shooting team on a lower volume of attempts (33.2), help defense will need to be prompt since they’re one of the best at moving the ball. Memphis needs Edey to have a strong night on the glass, so Denver, which is ninth in second-chance scoring, doesn’t kill them on back-breaking plays.
More action from Santi Aldama and finding shooters
One trend that’s continued over the Grizzlies’ last two wins is that Aldama had at least 20 points each night, and he logged a season high in minutes (34) in the last one. Watson will probably guard him at times, and as promising as he is on defense, he remains undisciplined, going for too many fakes. Spencer Jones has size and strength, but doesn’t have the experience, with only 259 career minutes logged, to stop him.
The Nuggets also concede 20.4 wide-open 3-point attempts per game. Memphis needs Cedric Coward’s deep jumper to be on target. On top of that, maybe Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a former Nugget of two seasons, will have his first good game against them since leaving Denver. Yet, he’s been struggling heavily, making only 22.6 percent of 3-point attempts in November. The Grizzlies will at least need impactful perimeter defense so Murray gets fewer easy looks.
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