Tyler Herro is back and the Miami Heat have won five games in a row heading into Wednesday night’s matchup in NBA Cup Group Play against the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Bucks may still be without superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo (groin), who is listed as questionable for this matchup, and they’ve lost three games in a row since he went down and five in a row overall to fall into the bottom half of the Eastern Conference standings.
This Milwaukee team is not equipped offensively to handle a Giannis absence, and oddsmakers have set it as an underdog on the road in this game.
The Heat have been great at home this season, going 7-2 against the spread while posting a +7.3 average scoring margin. Can they win and cover in this NBA Cup matchup with a chance to clinch East Group C with a win (and a New York Knicks loss)?
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Eastern Conference battle.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Bucks Injury Report
Heat Injury Report
Note: This prop bet selection was written before odds were released and is based on past player performance and statistics.
Herro made his season debut on Monday night and promptly dropped 24 points on 12-of-18 shooting in a win over the Dallas Mavericks.
The Heat star did not make a 3-pointer or get to the free throw line, but he did play nearly 30 minutes and was clearly the focal point of the offense when he was on the floor. That bodes well for his points props going forward, especially in this Miami offense which is No. 1 in pace and points per game this season.
I’ll back Herro as his role will likely only expand in the coming games.
Miami is 7-2 against the spread at home this season, and it should easily dispose of this Bucks team that simply cannot keep up on offense without Giannis. Even if the star plays, Miami has a deeper team than this Milwaukee squad.
The Bucks have scored 114, 116 and 103 points in their last three games without the two-time MVP, falling to 1-4 without him this season. They’ve lost all three games since he suffered a groin injury by at least nine points.
Meanwhile, Miami ranks No. 1 in the NBA in points per game and should be even more dangerous with Herro back in action.
The Bucks are also just 3-4 straight up on the road this season.
Pick: Heat -6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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