The Portland Trail Blazers are witnessing the emergence of Deni Avdija as a potential franchise star. The versatile forward’s improvement has caught the attention of fans and analysts alike, and he is being considered as a legitimate candidate for All-Star discussions this season. Avdija’s journey has been notable; he transitioned from an exciting prospect in the Israeli league to being the 9th overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, and has seamlessly become the Blazers’ on-court leader over the past 18 months.
Despite the Blazers facing injuries and inconsistent performances early in the season, Avdija stands out as a significant positive. His current contract, set to last until 2028, is remarkably team-friendly, with its descending value promising affordability. In practical terms, the final three years of his deal will be below the projected Mid-Level Exception for those seasons, making it an incredible bargain for a player of his caliber.
However, this advantageous contract comes with complications. The attractiveness of Avdija’s deal might impede the Blazers’ ability to extend his contract before he reaches unrestricted free agency. Throughout the early part of the season, Avdija has been invaluable to the team’s performance, even taking on the role of interim point guard due to multiple injuries in the backcourt roster. Averaging 25.9 points per game with shooting percentages of 37.0% from three-point range and 48.7% from the field, his contributions also include 6.7 rebounds and 5.8 assists in an average of 34.4 minutes per game.
Among forwards in the NBA, Avdija ranks impressively in several statistical categories: fourth in assist rate, eighth in points per shot attempt, and ninth in block rate. His presence on the court positively affects the team’s dynamics; the Blazers boast a +16.3 point differential per 100 possessions when he’s playing, placing them in the 93rd percentile leaguewide.
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Beyond mere numbers, Avdija exhibits a rare ability to thrive in open-floor situations, making him a prime candidate for the NBA’s Most Improved Player award. His skillset aligns well with the aggressive defensive strategy of the Blazers, positioning him to capitalize effectively on chances against unsettled defenses.
Contractually, Avdija’s situation is nuanced. He is eligible for an extension next summer, but the Blazers may struggle to negotiate a deal that reflects his true market value. If the team opts for a standard veteran extension, they will find themselves limited to offering a salary in the early-to-mid $20 million range, which is unlikely to satisfy a player of Avdija’s talent. The specter of unrestricted free agency looms large, and the memory of LaMarcus Aldridge’s departure when he hit free agency in 2015 still lingers in the minds of Blazers fans.
While there’s no current indication that Avdija is unhappy in Portland, the dynamics of his contract situation and his potential impact on the roster could influence future decisions. As he continues to impress, the possibility of trading him at the February deadline, especially if he secures an All-Star appearance, raises strategic questions for the Blazers’ management. Given that his current salary is $14.4 million, any interested teams would find themselves with a solid asset at a low cost for the next couple of years.
However, the Blazers would likely demand considerable compensation in return, possibly including multiple first-round picks, ideally at least two with lottery potential. This hypothetical trading scenario illustrates a delicate balance; while Avdija is seen as integral to the team’s future, a trade could also leverage his current value effectively.
Ultimately, while speculation about Avdija’s future arises from his blossoming status, his immediate trajectory suggests he will remain a crucial part of the Blazers’ plans moving forward. Discussions surrounding his potential extension will likely continue, but the organizational approach will need to carefully weigh all factors, given the evolving landscape of the Western Conference and Avdija’s place within it.
