Official Big 12 football tiebreakers, scenarios throw wrinkle into Arizona State’s chances
ASU football to face Arizona in 2025 Territorial Cup
ASU coach Kenny Dillingham associates the game with the Thanksgiving holiday tradition and knows the Sun Devils will face a good team on Nov. 28.
After Arizona State defeated Colorado on Nov. 22, the ESPN2 broadcast and college football writers immediately detailed ASU football’s potential path to the Big 12 football conference championship game, citing two scenarios.
The first? Arizona State would get in with a win over Arizona on Nov. 28 and a BYU loss to UCF on Nov. 29.
The second? The Sun Devils would be in with both a Utah loss at Kansas State on Nov. 28 and a Texas Tech loss at West Virginia on Nov. 29.
Not so fast.
The Big 12 Conference’s updated Big 12 football clinching scenarios now show three paths to the Big 12 title game for Kenny Dillingham’s team, none as simple as beating Arizona and seeing UCF upset BYU.
College football Week 14 picks: Utah at Kansas | Georgia at Georgia Tech | Texas A&M at Texas | Arizona at Arizona State | Ohio State at Michigan | Texas Tech at West Virginia | UCF at BYU | Vanderbilt at Tennessee | Alabama at Auburn | The Republic’s Big 12 predictions
Big 12 football scenarios show difficult path for Arizona State to make conference title game
Here are ASU football’s official clinching scenarios to make the Big 12 championship game now, according to the conference:
- Arizona State clinches with a win over Arizona AND a BYU loss AND a Utah loss
OR
- Arizona State clinches with a win over Arizona AND a Texas Tech loss AND a BYU win
OR
- Arizona State clinches with a win over Arizona AND a Texas Tech loss AND a Utah loss AND a BYU win
Texas Tech official clinching scenarios for Big 12 championship game
Texas Tech has two scenarios to make the Big 12 title game, according to the conference:
- Texas Tech clinches with a win over West Virginia
OR
- Texas Tech clinches with an Arizona State loss
BYU official clinching scenarios for Big 12 championship game
BYU has three paths to get to the conference final, as detailed by the Big 12 conference:
- BYU clinches with a win over UCF
OR
- BYU clinches with an Arizona State loss
OR
- BYU clinches with a Texas Tech loss AND an Arizona State Win and a Utah win
Utah official clinching scenarios for Big 12 championship game
Utah has just one complicated path to make the Big 12 title game, according to the Big 12:
- Utah clinches with a win over Kansas AND a Texas Tech loss AND an Arizona State win AND a BYU win
What are Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and Arizona State’s chances to win Big 12?
ESPN currently gives Texas Tech a 66.2% chance to win the Big 12 title. BYU is given a 31.3% shot.
Utah is at 1.7 % and Arizona State is at 0.8%.
According to BetMGM Sportsbook’s odds, Texas Tech is -400 to be the Big 12 champion, while BYU is at +350.
Utah is given +3000 odds, with Arizona State at +5000.
In game odds, Texas Tech (-23.5) is a huge favorite in odds against West Virginia and BYU (-17.5) is a big favorite against UCF, while Utah (-12.5) is a large favorite over Kansas.
Arizona State is a 2.5-point underdog against Arizona.
A Big 12 championship game between Texas Tech and BYU is by far the most plausible outcome after Saturday’s conference games.
But Utah and Arizona State still have a chance, albeit a very small one for both teams. That has their fans clinging to hope that their team can earn a miraculous berth in the conference championship game.
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”
Reach Jeremy Cluff at jeremy.cluff@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.
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