LOGAN, Utah
For the second time in three years, Boise State’s end-of-season football fate will come down to statistics and formulas.
The Broncos (8-4, 6-2 Mountain West) secured a come-from-behind 25-24 victory over Utah State (6-6, 4-4) on Friday afternoon to move into a three-way tie atop the Mountain West standings, alongside New Mexico and San Diego State. That happened because the Lobos beat the Aztecs 23-17 in double overtime on Friday.
UNLV (9-2, 5-2) is heavily favored to make it a four-way tie Saturday night, with the Rebels traveling to Nevada (3-8, 2-5).
So who gets into the Mountain West championship game? With no head-to-head tiebreaker possible, the conference’s next step is to rank the four teams based on a composite of four computer rankings: Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI and SportSource.
Insert your own joke about Team A being better than Team B “on paper,” so to speak.
The two teams with the highest marks will make the title game. The host will be decided by who won the regular-season matchup between the two teams; if they didn’t play, which is the case only if it’s UNLV and San Diego State, then it will revert to the composite computer rankings.
“At the end of the day, Boise State’s the back-to-back Mountain West champions,” Boise State coach Spencer Danielson said after Friday’s win, referring to the regular season. “We lost two games, and there’s a lot we can learn and grow from, but this team is absolutely deserving of playing in the championship game.”
The other head coaches no doubt feel the same way.
In 2023, UNLV, Boise State and San Jose State had a three-way tie for first place, and the computers left the Spartans out, with the Rebels (9-5, 6-2) as No. 1 and the Broncos (8-6, 6-2) as No. 2 in the pecking order. UNLV and BSU did not play in the regular season that year, so the Rebels got to host the game by virtue of being atop the computer rankings.
Had San Diego State managed to defeat New Mexico on Friday, this whole scenario would have been avoided. The Aztecs would have been 7-1 in the conference and would have hosted Boise State in the title game, because the Broncos own the head-to-head tiebreaker over UNLV.
Quarterback Max Cutforth celebrates Boise State’s big win over Utah State on the road Friday. Now the Broncos have to wait for computer rankings to sort out who makes the Mountain West championship game. Chris Gardner Getty Images
Where does Boise State fit into the rankings?
So what does it all mean for the Broncos? Unfortunately for Danielson, he doesn’t have a say in whether BSU will play in its fourth straight championship game, which would offer a shot at a three-peat in titles.
What do the computers say?
Only three of the rankings used are publicly available, with SportSource the odd one out, meaning we don’t have a complete picture until the conference releases the rankings on Sunday between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. Mountain time.
With the knowledge that we do have, here’s where the four teams landed ahead of this week’s games when averaging their overall ranking from Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR and KPI:
- San Diego State: 42.3
- UNLV: 46.3
- Boise State: 52
- New Mexico: 57
The Lobos’ victory over San Diego State obviously means a jump for them and a fall for the Aztecs, but who knows how severely. Boise State’s tight win on the road over a team that was unbeaten at home will provide a boost, but whether that’s enough to hold off New Mexico, or even jump over San Diego State, remains to be seen.
UNLV will see very little adjustment with a win, because beating the Wolf Pack simply won’t move the needle much. A loss for the Rebels leaves just a three-way tie for the computers.
The other big factor will be how each team’s season opponents perform this weekend. For instance, Boise State has losses on the season to San Diego State, which just lost again; Fresno State, which faces San Jose State on Saturday; Notre Dame, which plays at Stanford; and South Florida, which closes its season vs. Rice.
A loss by any of those conceivably harms the Broncos’ computer rankings. By the same token, Boise State beat New Mexico and UNLV, so victories for them are helpful.
Potential championship scenarios for Boise State
If the Broncos are in the top two of the rankings in a four-way tie, there’s a two-thirds chance they could host the title game, because of head-to-head results once the computers sort out the participants.
Boise State and San Diego State are the top two: The Aztecs would host by virtue of their 17-7 win at home on Nov. 15 in the rain in what was quarterback Max Cutforth’s first start after the injury to Maddux Madsen.
Boise State and UNLV: The Broncos would host, having defeated the Rebels 56-31 on Oct. 18 at Albertsons Stadium. This matchup would mark the third straight year the Mountain West title comes down to these two teams, with BSU hosting last year and UNLV the year before.
Boise State and New Mexico: The Broncos again would be the host, as a result of their 41-25 win over the Lobos at Albertsons Stadium on Oct. 11.
This story was originally published November 28, 2025 at 9:11 PM.
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Shaun Goodwin
Idaho Statesman
Shaun Goodwin is the Boise State Athletics reporter for the Idaho Statesman, covering Broncos football, basketball and more. If you like stories like this, please consider supporting our work with a digital subscription.
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