The Los Angeles Lakers secured former No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton this summer to be their solution at center. Not only has he fallen short of what they need, but his former teammate Robert Williams III is showing the Lakers just what they could have had instead.
The Lakers have been searching for a solution at center since the moment Luka Doncic was inexplicab.y traded to them. They tiptoed the finish line on a trade for Mark Williams, have been in trade talks for Walker Kessler, and have been linked to every veteran name from Brook Lopez to Al Horford.
Their answer this summer was Deandre Ayton, a polarizing figure at the pivot. On the one hand, he has been a walking double-double machine and capable of huge outputs of scoring and blocks. On the other, he avoids contact like he is social distancing on the basketball court and was a huge disappointment on his max rookie contract.
Disappointing as a max player is not the same as being better than minimum answers at the position, however, and it seemed like a reasonable bet that Luka Doncic’s passing could unlock th ebest of Ayton. And that has worked at times, as Ayton is still capable of putting up points and rebounds in droves. The problem is that he is not driving winning overall for a team that has championship aspirations.
Ayton’s turnover rate has increased by nearly 50 percent to a career high (by far), while his assist rate has been cut in half. Add in a career low rebounding rate, and his greatest strength has taken a step back. His efficiency is sky-high as a result of playing with Doncic and Austin Reaves, but the overall package is a player who is below replacement level at center.
That is bad enough on the surface. It gets worse when you compare Ayton with his former teammate in Portland, Robert Williams III.
The Lakers got the wrong Portland center
Robert Williams was incredibly available this summer for any team that wanted him, as the former Boston Celtics big was limited to just 26 games across two seasons with the Trail Blazers due to injury. His $13.3 million salary this season looked like an overpay, but it was also an expiring contract.
Williams was linked to the Lakers multiple times in rumors over the summer, but they went after Ayton instead. He and the Lakers had surely put a deal in place when he negotiated his buyout with Portland, Whatever it would have cost the Lakers to trade for Williams, they decided it was better to sign Ayton instead.
Williams is now healthy and he is performing like the former starter on an NBA Finals team he is. He is not a high-usage center and he doesn’t create offense or score as prolifically as Ayton. What he does is defend and attack the rim like the ideal Luka Doncic pick-and-roll partner Ayton will never be.
Ayton is continually doing great things and terrible things while on the court; Williams is merely solid at all times. Despite playing a third of the minutes, Williams has more blocks than Ayton this season. His block rate triples Ayton’s. Defensive Box Plus-Minus rates Williams well above average at +2.0; Ayton is underwater at -1.1.
Rebound rate? Williams wins. Turnover rate? Williams wins in a landslide; Ayton has 36 turnovers on the season compared to only four for Williams. Steal rate. Assist rate. It’s all Williams. He plays a smaller role, but he is thriving in that role; Ayton is floundering in his.
Rob Pelinka thought that Ayton was the best option available to them. Perhaps things will turn around and his decision proves to be the right one. Thus far, the results are suboptimal. And when the very available Robert Williams is showing up Ayton on a nightly basis, the early return is clear.
The Lakers chose the wrong Portland center this summer.
