Premier League predictions and best bets: Pep Guardiola under pressure? Man City to slip up at Fulham

Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League midweek card and wants to back Fulham to beat Manchester City.

Bournemouth vs Everton, Tuesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Odds of 5/2 with Sky Bet for an Everton win certainly catch the eye when you dig into Bournemouth’s recent defensive slide.

The Cherries are conceding goals at a rate that should concern Andoni Iraola, with 15 shipped in their last six games. The departures of Dean Huijsen and Illia Zabarnyi are now being felt, stripping Bournemouth of both mobility and composure in central areas. The situation is compounded further by Marcos Senesi’s suspension here, leaving Iraola without his most reliable defender in terms of timing, duels and experience of the Premier League.

Everton thrive on territory, pressure and set-piece moments, precisely the areas where Bournemouth have begun to wobble. Under David Moyes, they’ve won seven of 15 away days. That could become eight.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Fulham vs Manchester City, Tuesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Manchester City’s away form has developed a whiff of vulnerability that makes the 4/6 with Sky Bet for an away win look very skinny. The bookmakers must be quietly confident of getting Pep Guardiola’s team beat here.

City’s problems aren’t headline-grabbing collapses, they’re subtle, the sort of issues that only appear when you start peeking a bit deeper. Across their last 17 Premier League away games, City are averaging just 1.19 goals scored per game. That’s mid-table output – far from the title-winning days where they’d be averaging nearly two goals per game on the road. It’s not a metric of dominant, odds-on favourites.

Marco Silva’s men can be ragged on their travels but at Craven Cottage they play with much more cohesion. Only Arsenal have conceded fewer (2) than Silva’s men (3) in home matches this season.

Fulham draw no bet at 5/2 with Sky Bet is a big price.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Fulham draw no bet (5/2 with Sky Bet)

Newcastle vs Tottenham, Tuesday 8.15pm, live on Sky Sports

Tottenham arrive at St James’ Park carrying all the hallmarks of a team running on fumes in the final third.

Across the season they’re averaging just 9.5 shots per game and 3.2 shots on target per game, their lowest Premier League output since Opta started collating the data. Spurs remain a team that struggle to generate anything resembling sustained pressure.

The underlying numbers paint an even bleaker picture. Spurs have posted an expected goals tally under 1.0 in each of their last four Premier League matches, and in seven of their last eight. That isn’t a blip, that’s an identity crisis. Thomas Frank is already under serious pressure.

Newcastle are a beast at home, too. The intensity, the physicality, the speed of their press. Opponents get smothered long before they reach the final third.

With Tottenham’s chance creation non-existent and Newcastle’s defensive metrics at St James’ Park consistently strong, the win to nil at 2/1 with Sky Bet becomes the natural landing spot for the value hunters.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Arsenal vs Brentford, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Arsenal keep rolling in an efficient and relentless manner.

Mikel Arteta’s men are now unbeaten in 17 matches in all competitions, their longest streak under the Spaniard, and they’re doing it with a defensive base that is as sturdy as anything in Europe.

In fact, Arsenal boast the most clean sheets (7) and joint-fewest defeats (1) across all competitions in Europe’s major leagues – elite numbers that tell you precisely where their authority lies.

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Highlights from the Premier League clash between Chelsea and Arsenal.

And Brentford are exactly the sort of team Arsenal tend to keep at arm’s length.

Arsenal and under 3.5 goals has landed in nine of their last 15 Premier League outings. That’s the pattern. Professional wins.

No need for fireworks when discipline and dominance will do, and that bet is on offer at Evens with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Brighton vs Aston Villa, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Ezri Konsa has quietly become one of the Premier League’s most adept players at winning fouls. The numbers make the case: Konsa has been fouled at least twice in six of his last 11 starts, and across the season he’s averaging 1.6 fouls drawn per game.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Nottingham Forest’s match against Brighton in the Premier League.

Konsa’s role under Unai Emery is tailor-made for drawing pressure. He steps into midfield, he drives into space and he becomes the trigger point for opposition presses.

Konsa is on offer at 5/4 with Sky Bet to draw two or more fouls – it’s a price that hasn’t fully caught up with the player’s true foul-drawing ability.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Burnley vs Crystal Palace, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Crystal Palace are giving off uneasy vibes – even for a fixture of this winnable magnitude.

On the pitch, they remain a team with so much going for them but the mood music in the background is beginning to change. Oliver Glasner isn’t exactly hiding his frustration with the lack of ambition being shown above him, and when a manager starts sounding such soundbites, it rarely stays contained.

You don’t need a psychology degree to know how quickly that can seep into a dressing room. Players can sense uncertainty. And suddenly a team that should be bullying lesser opposition becomes tentative and starts to feel that extra workload in their legs the world has been talking about.

A draw looks on the cards, with Burnley on the double chance at Evens with Sky Bet looking a bet with potential.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Wolves vs Nottingham Forest, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Wolves and their increased threat from set pieces under Rob Edwards remains a betting angle to explore.

Yerson Mosquera has the attributes to be a big threat from such situations – he’s tall, athletic and aerially competitive – and those qualities have been spotted by Edwards, based on how prominent Mosquera was in Wolves’ set-piece structure in the defeat at Villa.

The defender had two shots there and was denied a goal by a save-of-the-season contender from Emiliano Martinez. If Edwards rinses and repeats those set-piece routines, then Mosquera is great value in the shots market where he’s Evens with Sky Bet to have one or more shots.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Yerson Mosquera to have +1 shots (Evens with Sky Bet)

Leeds vs Chelsea, Wednesday 8.15pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Football seasons aren’t defined by the headline fixtures like beating Liverpool at home and grabbing a point with 10 men against Arsenal. Those moments can create momentum and belief but they don’t win titles. What does define a challenger for top honours are the awkward and gritty away days where the favourites must prove their resilience rather than their brilliance. And Chelsea’s visit to Elland Road falls into that category. Win here and a title push could be on.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from West Ham’s match against Liverpool in the Premier League.

If Chelsea are genuine title contenders then these are the games they must navigate. It’s easy to raise your levels for Liverpool and Arsenal, it’s far harder to reproduce that clarity when you’re getting hunted by a team whose primary motivation is to make your evening a miserable one. This could be a fiddly fixture for Chelsea. The draw looks the bet at 3/1 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Liverpool vs Sunderland, Wednesday 8.15pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

If you’ve been riding the Liverpool goals conceded train in recent weeks, Sunday’s 2-0 stroll against a meek and mild West Ham shouldn’t spook you off the scent.

One clean sheet against a side seemingly allergic to progressive passes doesn’t suddenly fix what has become a very clear trend in that Liverpool are conceding big chances – and plenty of them. Only West Ham, Burnley, Manchester United and Everton are conceding more than Liverpool (23).

Across their last eight games, Liverpool have shipped 16 goals.

The aura of defensive invincibility that Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate once radiated has dimmed.

Sunderland tick the exact boxes Liverpool have struggled with in that they’re energetic, press with enthusiasm and attack space quickly when it’s there. They don’t need to dominate the game to score. All this adds up to both teams to score and over 2.5 goals being a nice slice of value at 11/10 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Manchester United vs West Ham, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Jarrod Bowen to score at 3/1 with Sky Bet is a generous gift from the traders at Sky Bet. An early Christmas present perhaps.

Bowen is the spark in this West Ham side. He leads the way for shot-creating actions, progressive carries, ball progression and shots on target – Bowen does it all. When West Ham manage to pose a threat, it often goes through him.

Manchester United have kept just two clean sheets in their last 21 games and there remain big structural issues in defence, with no authority in key areas.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Jarrod Bowen to score (3/1 with Sky Bet)

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Crystal Palace’s match against Manchester United in the Premier League.

Jones Knows’ best bets:

• 1pt on Fulham draw no bet vs Manchester City (5/2 with Sky Bet)
• 1pt on Yerson Mosquera to have +1 shots (Evens with Sky Bet)
• 1pt on Jarrod Bowen to score (3/1 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss record 25/26

Best Bet singles (1 unit)
Best Bet multiples
Total P+L

Matchday One
0
-1
-1

Matchday Two
0
-1
-2

Matchday Three
0
-1
-3

Matchday Four
0
-1
-4

Matchday Five
+2.75
-1
-2.75

Matchday Six
-1
-1
-4.75

Matchday Seven
-1
0
-5.75

Matchday Eight
-3
0
-8.75

Matchday Nine
0
-1
-9.75

Matchday 10
-1
-1
-11.75

Matchday 11
-1
0
-12.75

Matchday 12
-1
-1
-14.75

Matchday 13
-2
0
-16.75