The holiday season is in full swing and 2025 in the final stretch as lawmakers and the Trump administration face a bundle of unfinished agriculture business. This includes key biofuel issues and financial relief for crop growers hurt by tariffs.
The House and Senate are back in session Monday after the Thanksgiving break.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has said an announcement on a support package for farmers is imminent and could land at soon as this week.
Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden has indicated that the payment plan would take into account recent changes in commodity markets.
In an analysis released last week, the American Farm Bureau Federation warned that five of seven major crops are set to see larger average losses this year. AFBF said rising input costs and export uncertainty exacerbating the economic squeeze on producers and increasing the need for further assistance.
But some farm program critics are pushing the administration to learn from the assistance programs stood up in Trump’s first term to improve efficiency and avoid overspending. A group of non-profit organizations wrote to Rollins and USDA Undesecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg last week, arguing that any aid should be subject to strict payment limits and oversight.
The groups, which included the R Street Institute, Farm Action and Taxpayers for Common Sense, pointed to a 2022 review of the 2018-2019 Market Facilitation Program by the Government Accountability Office, which found $800 million went to ineligible recipients or were not the correct amounts. A separate review also found underlying issues in the way USDA calculated the tariff impacts.
“USDA should take prudent measures to direct aid to where it is needed most and avoid unnecessary spending or waste that could further exacerbate our fiscal outlook,” the groups argue.
One of the biggest issues facing lawmakers this month is the expiration of the expanded premium subsidies for Affordable Care Act insurance policies. Democrats have been promised a vote on the issue in the Senate this month.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., said said on CNN’s State of the Union Sunday that Democrats stand to benefit politically if Republicans don’t block an extension.
“If they don’t want to do anything about people’s costs and their grocery bills and their health care and pummel them with these punishing Trump tariffs, then we will simply have to beat them in the midterms. We have no other choice.”
The White House reportedly floated a two-year extension of ACA subsidies, and Trump told reporters last week some kind of extension may be necessary. Whether he can get congressional Republicans to go along with that remains to be seen.
China soybean watch continues
With just one month to go before China’s deadline for ordering 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, Beijing remains well off the pace. China could still be as much as 10 million tons short of that commitment, according to USDA sales data.
Trump also seems to be taking note of the mountain left to climb. He told reporters last week that he brought up the cadence of Chinese ag purchases with President Xi Jinping during a Monday phone call and said that Xi had agreed to pick up the pace.
“I asked him – ‘I’d like you to buy a little faster. I’d like you to buy more,’” Trump told reporters. “He’s more or less agreed to do that.”
Following the call, Reuters reported that Chinese buyers had placed orders for another 10 U.S. cargoes, worth $300 million.
The Chinese embassy in Washington said in a statement Wednesday that Xi had relayed the message that both sides should “keep moving forward in the right direction on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit.”
But Rollins stressed again on Wednesday that the long-term project has to be reducing the industry’s reliance on its China sales.
“When our farmers in America are so reliant on one purchaser, that is not healthy for anyone,” Rollins told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo. “The larger point here is we’ve got these new trade deals, and we’re going to start selling soybeans to a lot of other countries, beginning immediately.”
Talking North American trade
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is slated to hold a marathon three-day listening session on a North American trade pact as part of its feedback gathering process ahead of a review next year.
The agency will hear stakeholder views on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement from Wednesday to Friday. The free trade agreement, which was inked during Trump’s first term, has a built-in review mechanism that directs the three parties to review the deal after six years and decide whether to extend, reform or scrap it after 2036.
A comment period on the deal that closed earlier this month received more than 1,500 comments, including responses from over 100 ag groups and more than 90 individual farmers and ranchers.
While the deal enjoys widespread support among many ag industries, plenty of respondents also made recommendations for improving the deal.
But whether or not an updated agreement would have to be approved by Congress remains a gray area, according to two trade lawyers Agri-Pulse interviewed last week. The administration may want to consult with Congress to head off any issues, said Ryan Majerus, a former assistant secretary in the Commerce Department who is now a trade lawyer at King and Spalding.
But depending on the scale of the changes, it may not legally have to do so, said Mayur Patel, former chief international trade counsel for the Senate Finance Committee. Patel is now a lawyer at Hogan Lovells.
“This is a bit of debate between the executive branch [and Congress] about where the line is drawn,” Patel said.
Here is a list of agriculture or rural-related events scheduled for this week in Washington and elsewhere (all times EST):
Monday, Dec. 1
RNG Coalition annual renewable natural gas conference, through Thursday, Dana Point, California.
8:30 a.m. – USDA releases backlogged export sales report for the week ended Oct. 23.
4 p.m. – USDA releases Crop Progress report.
Tuesday, Dec. 2
Agricultural Retailers Association 2025 conference and expo, through Thursday, Salt Lake City.
11 a.m. – USDA releases farm income forecast update.
Wednesday, Dec. 3
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative holds a public hearing on next year’s review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, through Friday.
Organic Grower Summit, through Thursday, Monterey, California.
10 a.m. – Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee hearing on rising health care costs, 430 Dirksen.
Thursday, Dec. 4
8:30 a.m. – USDA releases backlogged export sales report for the week ended Oct. 30.
4 p.m. – The Atlantic Council hosts an event, “Driving the Next Chapter in the US–Mexico Agenda.”
Friday, Dec. 5
3 p.m. – USDA releases Cattle on Feed, Chickens and Eggs, and Milk Production reports.
For more news, go to Agri-Pulse.com.
