College football bowl projections: How Alabama’s fate could reshape the postseason – The Athletic

The Athletic as live coverage of the latest release of the 2025 College Football Playoff rankings.

All eyes are on Alabama this weekend, and it’s not just because the Tide currently occupy the final at-large spot in the College Football Playoff. What happens to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game could impact up to 30 other bowl matchups, most of which have nothing to do with the game itself.

Let’s look at it from three different angles. One, if Alabama beats Georgia, then only the slotting within the current CFP rankings changes. Two, if Alabama loses a one-score game, it’s difficult to imagine the Tide falling from their current spot. (If that were to happen, conference’s desire to keep staging championship games will disintegrate faster than an ice cube at a summer picnic.)

But a third outcome could have major ramifications. If Georgia beats Alabama soundly — say, 31-17 — will the Tide remain in the CFP lineup? If not, will Miami or BYU (if it loses to Texas Tech) replace Alabama?  Let’s ride this scenario for a minute.

If Miami jumps ahead of Alabama and BYU, then its head-to-head result with Notre Dame will come into focus, and the Hurricanes could sneak past the Irish. Meanwhile, Alabama would fall into the SEC’s non-CFP bowl pool. It probably wouldn’t head to the Citrus Bowl, which wouldn’t want to match it up with Michigan for the third straight bowl cycle. The ReliaQuest Bowl, where it played last year, hasn’t had a repeat participant since Tennessee in 2007-08.

So, if Alabama falls, does it go to the Gator Bowl or the Music City Bowl? The answer impacts the rest of the conference. But the SEC projects to have two vacancies in its lineup, and many Group of 6 teams would love to get a crack at an SEC bowl with a vacancy — right now, that projects to be the Liberty and Duke’s Mayo bowls. The ripple effect for other bowls would be felt from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

For now, we’ll keep projecting the Tide in the CFP, considering they won at Georgia during the regular season. Here are a few other noteworthy projections:

• Should BYU lose to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, the Cougars are likely headed back to the Alamo Bowl for the second straight season. BYU would play a Pac-12 legacy team, most likely USC, which has never played in the Alamo Bowl.

• Michigan-Texas in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Eve would approach CFP-level television ratings. It also could serve as a 2026 Heisman Trophy springboard between Texas quarterback Arch Manning and Michigan’s Bryce Underwood.

• Iowa State and Minnesota’s campuses are located just three hours apart, and the teams constantly recruit against one another, but they’ve played just five times in the last 101 years. A duel in the desert would entertain both fan bases.

• Pittsburgh vs. Penn State at Yankee Stadium for their 101st meeting would have Pinstripe Bowl officials dancing in the Bronx.

• Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia battling Iowa’s defense under coordinator Phil Parker in Tampa would kick off New Year’s Eve in fine fashion.

This year, all 82 bowl slots can be filled without turning to Academic Progress Rates among 5-7 squads. If a team drops out due to player attrition like Marshall did last year, then Auburn would be the first alternate.

A few evergreen notes:

The highest-ranked five conference champions plus the top seven at-large teams qualify for the 12-team College Football Playoff. The four highest-ranked teams earn first-round byes. Those teams will play in the Cotton (Dec. 31), Orange (Jan. 1), Rose (Jan. 1) and Sugar (Dec. 31) bowls. Teams seeded 5-8 host seeds 9-12 on Dec. 19-20. Should the Big Ten and SEC champions earn byes, they will play in the Rose and Sugar bowls, respectively. The next-highest ranked squad heads to the closest remaining bowl site to its campus.

The former Pac-12 schools still fall under the conference’s old agreements. It’s possible to see current in-conference matchups in the Alamo, Vegas, Holiday or Sun bowls.

ESPN Events owns the Bahamas Bowl and will move it to a different location, which has yet to be announced. It will take place.

BowlMatchup

LA
Dec. 13, 2025

Pac-12 6 Arizona State

MWC 1 Boise State

Salute to Veterans
Dec. 16, 2025

Sun Belt Southern Miss

MAC Toledo

Cure
Dec. 17, 2025

Sun Belt Old Dominion

G5/Open Kennesaw State

68 Ventures
Dec. 17, 2025

Sun Belt Louisiana

Open Missouri State

Myrtle Beach
Dec. 19, 2025

Sun Belt Georgia Southern

Open Delaware

Gasparilla
Dec. 19, 2025

SEC/ACC/AAC NC State

Open USF

Famous Idaho Potato
Dec. 22, 2025

MWC Utah State

MAC Central Michigan

Boca Raton
Dec. 23, 2025

Open Coastal Carolina

Open Florida International

New Orleans
Dec. 23, 2025

Sun Belt Troy

CUSA Jacksonville State

Frisco
Dec. 23, 2025

G5 Texas State

G5 Fresno State

Hawai’i
Dec. 24, 2025

MWC Hawaii

American/Other California

GameAbove Sports
Dec. 26, 2025

Big Ten 8 Northwestern

MAC Ohio

Rate
Dec. 26, 2025

Big Ten 7 Minnesota

Big 12 6 Iowa State

First Responder
Dec. 26, 2025

Open Washington State

Open Arkansas State

Military
Dec. 27, 2025

American Navy

ACC 8 Louisville

Pinstripe
Dec. 27, 2025

Big Ten 6 Penn State

ACC 5-7 Pittsburgh

Fenway
Dec. 27, 2025

ACC 9 Duke

American Army

Arizona
Dec. 27, 2025

MWC San Diego State

MAC 2 Western Michigan

Pop-Tarts
Dec. 27, 2025

Big 12 3 TCU

ACC 2-4 Georgia Tech

New Mexico
Dec. 27, 2025

MWC New Mexico

Open UTSA

Gator
Dec. 27, 2025

ACC 2-4 Miami

SEC 3-8 Missouri

Texas
Dec. 27, 2025

Big 12 4 Houston

SEC 3-8 LSU

Birmingham
Dec. 29, 2025

ACC/SEC/Open East Carolina

SEC/ACC/Open UConn

Independence
Dec. 30, 2025

Big 12 7 Kansas State

CUSA/Sun Belt Louisiana Tech

Music City
Dec. 30, 2025

Big Ten 5 Illinois

SEC 3-8 Tennessee

Alamo
Dec. 30, 2025

Big 12 2 BYU

Pac-12 2 USC

ReliaQuest
Dec. 31, 2025

Big Ten 3 Iowa

SEC 3-8 Vanderbilt

Sun
Dec. 31, 2025

ACC 5-7 Clemson

Pac-12 5 Arizona

Citrus
Dec. 31, 2025

Big Ten 2 Michigan

SEC 2 Texas

Las Vegas
Dec. 31, 2025

Pac-12 3 Utah

Big Ten 4 Nebraska

Armed Forces
Jan. 2, 2026

Open UNLV

American North Texas

Liberty
Jan. 2, 2026

Big 12 5 Cincinnati

SEC 3-8 Memphis

Duke’s Mayo
Jan. 2, 2026

SEC 3-8 James Madison

ACC 5-7 Wake Forest

Holiday
Jan. 2, 2026

ACC 2-4 SMU

Pac-12 4 Washington

Bahamas/TBD
undefined NaN, NaN

MAC Miami (OH)

CUSA Western Kentucky

BowlMatchup

Playoff
Dec. 19, 2025

7 Ole Miss

10 Alabama

Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025

6 Texas A&M

11 Virginia

Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025

5 Oregon

12 Tulane

Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025

8 Oklahoma

9 Notre Dame

Cotton
Dec. 31, 2025

3 Indiana

A&M/UVA winner

Orange
Jan. 1, 2026

4 Texas Tech

ORE/Tulane winner

Rose
Jan. 1, 2026

1 Ohio State

ND/OU winner

Sugar
Jan. 1, 2026

2 Georgia

Ole Miss/Bama winner

Fiesta
Jan. 8, 2026

QF winner

QF winner

Peach
Jan. 9, 2026

QF winner

QF winner

Championship
Jan. 19, 2026

SF winner

SF winner