Oscar history hasn’t been kind to sequels, let alone “threequels.”
The third installment of James Cameron’s Pandora saga arrives in movie theaters in December with technological marvels and box office expectations that would make most studios salivate. But when it comes to Academy voters, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” faces a challenge no amount of motion-capture innovation can solve: the “been there, done that” problem.
When voters rewarded the original “Avatar” with nine nominations — including best picture and director — in 2010, they were expressing genuine awe at a cinematic experience that seemed to step into the future of moviemaking. When “The Way of Water” surfaced 13 years later with four nods (for best picture and in three technical categories), the message was clear: Impressive, but we’ve seen this magic trick before.
Now comes “Fire and Ash,” and the Academy’s collective shrug might already be audible.
The fundamental issue isn’t quality — Cameron rarely delivers anything less than technically extraordinary. The problem is novelty, or the lack of it. Oscar voters, particularly in the era of the preferential best picture ballot, gravitate toward films that represent cultural moments or artistic breakthroughs. In asking them to marvel at Pandora a third time, Cameron is competing against their instinct to champion something that feels urgent or culturally vital.
The Academy historically has hesitated to embrace anything resembling a sequel. Only 10 sequels have been nominated for best picture; just two — “The Godfather Part II” (1974) and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003) — won.
Let’s not forget: The Oscar race is crowded with awards-hungry releases. “Fire and Ash” will be fighting for oxygen against prestige dramas, biopics and likely several films with more obvious emotional hooks. The film’s reported $400 million-plus budget and franchise obligations mean it needs to be a four-quadrant blockbuster first, an Oscar contender second.
Anyway, that’s not where Cameron’s head is — he’s building a five-film saga that prioritizes technological legacy over trophies — but it’s a reality that shapes how voters will receive his movie. When a film shouts “engineered for global domination,” it’s harder to position it as an underdog or a passion project, two narratives that play well with voters.
So if “Fire and Ash” wants to surprise skeptics, a few things must fall into place.
There needs to be a genuine emotional core for a franchise whose characters haven’t resonated the way Cameron’s “Titanic” lovers or “Terminator” heroes did. If voters find that in this entry, it will change the conversation.
In addition, Cameron has historically been selective about awards-season glad-handing, but if he wants a comeback narrative, he’ll need to work rooms and remind voters why his vision matters.
And if luck will have it, “Fire and Ash” might tap into the cultural zeitgeist. Its themes of environmental disaster, Indigenous rights and intertribal conflict could suddenly feel prescient in ways that elevate the film beyond spectacle.
But let’s be honest: None of these are sure bets. The real question is whether “Fire and Ash” can crack the lineup at all. The Na’vi like to say, “I see you,” but when it comes to this latest entry, I don’t see voters going for it.
This week’s Oscar prediction updates are below.
Britain Dalton and Bailey Bass in 20th Century Studios’ “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
20TH CENTURY STUDIOS
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Original Screenplay
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) — Jafar Panahi
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler ***
Adapted Screenplay
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Guillermo Del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
“Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix) — Rian Johnson
Casting
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Nina Gold
“Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix) — Stéphane Batut
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey
Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“Elio” (Pixar)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
Production Design
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Cinematography
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Film Editing
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) ***
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Original Score
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Hildur Guðnadóttir
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
Original Song
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Clothed by the Sun” from “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Documentary Feature
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“The Librarians” (Independent Lens)
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
“No Other Choice” (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” (14); “Sinners” (13); “Hamnet” (10); “Frankenstein” and “Wicked: For Good” (9); “Marty Supreme” and “Sentimental Value” (6)
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (33); Netflix (18); Neon (15); Focus Features (10); Universal Pictures (9)
