Iowa women’s basketball vs. Rutgers prediction, what to watch

Hear from Iowa coach Jan Jensen after Hawkeyes beat Fairfield
Hear from Iowa coach Jan Jensen after Hawkeyes beat Fairfield
IOWA CITY — For an Iowa women’s basketball team still learning how to digest success together, the awkward early-December conference game can be trickier than expected.
The No. 12 Hawkeyes (8-0) are about to get their crack at handling this situation. Coming off wins over pesky mid-majors Western Illinois and Fairfield, Jan Jensen’s squad must lock in for a Dec. 6 date at Rutgers (5 p.m., FS1) that’ll set an early tone in Big Ten play. The Scarlet Knights (7-2) are dangerous enough to present problems if Iowa isn’t focused.
With that, here are three things to watch for ahead of Iowa’s visit to Jersey Mike’s Arena.
While this isn’t Iowa’s most intriguing December matchup, it’s arguably the most pivotal
The Hawkeyes have encountered at least one of these every season since the COVID-19 pandemic, a potential Big Ten landmine capable of even tripping up a team rolling through the non-conference schedule. Caitlin Clark and Iowa’s veteran makeup made the first three years of that no problem. Early-December wins over Michigan State (88-61) in 2021, Wisconsin (102-71) and Minnesota (87-64) in 2022 and Wisconsin (87-65) in 2023 arrived drama-free.
The Hawkeyes met a different fate last season.
Coming off an emotional Cy-Hawk win that saw seniors Lucy Olsen and Sydney Affolter carry Iowa across the finish line, the Hawkeyes couldn’t deliver the same result four days later at Michigan State. The Dec. 15 stumble saw Iowa blow a nine-point fourth-quarter lead. When Iowa and Michigan State met again three months later, the outcome was quite different. The Hawkeyes rolled to a 74-61 win that they controlled throughout.
So what’s the key to navigating through this strange beginning to league action?
“Because we’re more young than we’re older, getting the old kids to translate how difficult it is to win on the road (in the Big Ten) is a concern,” Jensen said. “I’ve been talking about it. I definitely haven’t made it just another road game. I’ve talked about the excitement and the importance of going 1-0 (to start conference play).
“Not all is won or lost. But the games on paper that land in your favor, you definitely want to take care of those.”
Now, this Rutgers team is nowhere near as good as the Michigan State squad Iowa faced last season. And the Scarlet Knights, for all their elite history, have only beaten the Hawkeyes once in 14 tries since joining the Big Ten. At the very least, Iowa should be a double-digit favorite in Piscataway.
Jensen knows, though, how costly this loss could be in the long run if Iowa isn’t dialed in. While this may not be the Hawkeyes’ most glamorous pre-Christmas showdown, it’s arguably the most important.
“That’s not anybody’s favorite with these expansive conferences. We now have to throw a conference game in the middle of everything else (in December),” Jensen said. “Because no matter how much people want to talk about what we did in Florida or the excitement of Iowa State (on Dec. 10) or the end of the non-con with Connecticut (on Dec. 20), any coach will tell you the most important game before Christmas is the conference one.”
The Hawkeyes’ injury concerns continue to linger
Regarding Iowa’s injury situation, the Hawkeyes hoped more clarity would arrive this week with several days in between games. That, however, hasn’t happened.
Jensen continued to label Chit-Chat Wright (upper body), Emely Rodriguez (back) and Teagan Mallegni (tonsils) as day-to-day. Wright hasn’t played since getting injured against Baylor on Nov. 20, while Rodriguez and Mallegni last played Nov. 22 vs. Miami.
“It’s not coach speak. They’re truly day-to-day when they’re going to be released,” Jensen said. “And there’s different testing and protocols, and I haven’t got that yet. I still think we’re a little bit away with Teagan’s recovery. But I’m crossing my fingers about Chat and Emely. But it really is day-to-day.”
Jensen said the trio did not practice this week and later added she doesn’t expect to get all three back at once. It feels like Mallegni is the furthest away from returning, though her recovery is mainly just getting game-ready stamina back. Wright and Rodriguez will ultimately have to do the same.
The Hawkeyes have been strong in their response to adversity, led by Taylor Stremlow and Addie Deal contributing more to keep the undefeated start going. The team-wide confidence gained should remain even if Iowa has to re-adjust when Wright, Rodriguez and Mallegni eventually return.
“You have to form your team a little bit different again,” Jensen said. “And everybody, once again, is going to have to realign roles. It is what it is. When you’re a kid who has unfortunately gotten hurt or had a procedure, then you are a little bit behind. And so then you’ve got to push everyone and stay patient.
“So they’ll continue to be a little forming when we get these kids back. I do not suspect we’ll get them all back at the same time. We’ll probably get one back, then one-and-a-half, and then maybe another two or three days, five days, we’ll get the third one back. So we’ll have to again learn those subbing patterns and role acceptances. But I do think the positive is we’ve gotten people a lot of experience.”
Hear from Kylie Feuerbach and Ava Heiden after Iowa beats Fairfield
Hear from Kylie Feuerbach and Ava Heiden after Iowa beats Fairfield
What stands out most on this overhauled Rutgers roster?
It’s a common theme in today’s college basketball climate, trying to evaluate a team that looks nothing like its previous self. With six transfers on the roster, Rutgers is firmly in that boat.
Considering the Scarlet Knights entered this season with just 33 wins in three years under Coquese Washington, an influx of new faces probably wasn’t a bad idea. Anchored by a starting lineup that has just one player under 6-foot-1, Rutgers has blended decent play with growing pains early on.
The Scarlet Knights enter on a three-game winning streak, but Rutgers also has a home loss to Stony Brook and a road stumble at Auburn in its only non-conference Power Four matchup. The remaining results have been wins over the northeast’s finest mid-majors.
The Hawkeyes’ size will need to show up, especially if Iowa’s backcourt is again shorthanded.
Iowa women’s basketball vs. Rutgers prediction
The Hawkeyes overcome a slow start and lean on their defense to start Big Ten play on the right foot. Iowa 72, Rutgers 60.
Dargan Southard is a sports trending reporter and covers Iowa athletics for the Des Moines Register and HawkCentral.com. Email him at msouthard@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter at @Dargan_Southard.




