Vikings-Commanders predictions: Can J.J. McCarthy have his best day playing freely? – The Athletic
The Vikings have said enough about the in-season focus on mechanics for young quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
Base, balance and body position? Topics for a later time. Posture? That will be revisited in a few months. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has spent much of this season offering a free course in quarterback mechanics and fundamentals. That’s no more.
Ahead of Sunday’s matchup with the Washington Commanders, Minnesota’s staff wants McCarthy to play as freely as possible. How will that go? Especially against a Washington Commanders team that may receive a boost from the return of fellow 2024 QB draftee Jayden Daniels? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.
What I’m watching
Lewis: J.J. McCarthy’s angst, or lack thereof. Can he just play? Is he cringing after throws, trying to ensure every pass and decision is perfect? Or can he center himself and let it rip? O’Connell talked about all of this earlier this week and now says, “Let’s just make the throws. Let’s just throw and catch.” Perhaps doing that will allow McCarthy’s arm talent to take over. Maybe his lower body mechanics will still falter, yet he’ll be able to make up for it with feel and adaptability.
Is it likely? I’m not so sure. Is it possible? Yes. McCarthy has five games until 2026 to prove he can stay healthy and make the throws required in NFL games. Consistency for four quarters is the goal. Even if the Commanders’ defense may be more capable than the numbers suggest, this is an opponent that presents a better opportunity than most.
Krawczynski: Justin Jefferson, the whole day. He said more last week in not speaking than he has said all season long. He has always been the good soldier, a leader who emphasizes the positive, expresses support and takes accountability. But he hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving day in two months. He had two catches for four yards against the Seahawks.
The quarterback situation is at DEFCON 2. If ever there were a time for the face of the franchise to have doubts about where things are going, that time is now. How that translates to his play on the field, to the overall feel in the locker room, to the Vikings’ future is going to be the only subplot to follow that rivals the quarterback situation.
Biggest concerns
Lewis: The Commanders’ fronts. Their offensive line looked formidable last week against an elite Broncos defensive line. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil has had an exceptional season. The interior trio of Chris Paul, Tyler Biadasz and Sam Cosmi is capable. Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury trusts this group with all sorts of run schemes and pulling movements. The Vikings’ defensive line will have to match the challenge.
On the other side, the Commanders’ defensive line isn’t near the top of the NFL, but tackle Daron Payne is talented and edge rushers Von Miller, Preston Smith, Frankie Luvu and Jacob Martin have juice. Losing at the line of scrimmage in this game is a possibility.
Krawczynski: The atmosphere in the stadium. Vikings fans, and Minnesota sports fans in general, are cynical. Disappointment and frustration are their fallback temperaments. There were very high hopes for this season and this quarterback because the people in charge expressed optimism. But it has all come to a crashing halt over the last few weeks, and if things don’t go well for McCarthy and the offense early on, it could get ugly. These fans won’t hesitate to make their displeasure known. For a young, impressionable quarterback, that could be a difficult spot to be in.
Most interesting matchup
Lewis: Brian Flores’s defense vs. Kingsbury’s offense. Washington hasn’t been easy to defend even without elite young quarterback Jayden Daniels. The scheme is creative. The Commanders will run the quarterback behind unexpected pullers. They have an extensive package of screens to different players in different areas of the field. In the red zone, only the Philadelphia Eagles are scoring touchdowns at a higher clip. Washington will even position receiver Deebo Samuel as a wildcat running back to have him make decisions in short-yardage situations.
The Vikings’ defense should be up for the test. Last week, Minnesota limited the Seahawks to their second-lowest explosive play rate in a game this season. If Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota is starting, Flores will likely have the Vikings keyed on Washington’s run game. If it’s Daniels, and it’s definitely a possibility, the Vikings will have to find a way to break up his rhythm in the pocket.
Krawczynski: Christian Darrisaw vs. his health. It’s been a difficult situation to navigate all season long, and circumstances seem to change from week to week and even quarter to quarter. After missing last week’s game against Seattle, he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, but did not practice on Thursday this week. When he is on the field and healthy, the Vikings’ offensive line is so much better. But that hasn’t been the case nearly enough for an offense that is struggling so mightily.
Donovan Jackson and Ryan Kelly are also banged up. McCarthy and O’Connell desperately need Darrisaw out there to hold things down on the left side. Assuming he plays, I’ll be watching closely to see how he is moving early in the game and setting the edge in the running game as well. But just because he starts the game does not mean that he will finish it.
Most interesting overall storyline
Lewis: How are the Vikings going to finish in their remaining home games? They’ve only won one home game thus far. That was more than two months ago, in the Week 3 matinee versus the Bengals and Jake Browning. Three home games are left. Two of them are against NFC North opponents, the Lions on Christmas and the Packers in early January.
It’s not so much that winning these games would mean anything in the standings, but the performances will unquestionably play a role in how the end of this season will feel. Vikings ownership doesn’t act irrationally. It typically takes the long-term view. Getting embarrassed at U.S. Bank Stadium, though, will make it harder to stand pat and refrain from the hardest of questions. Lose to the Commanders, and it’ll be an uphill battle to generate a home win for the rest of the season.
Krawczynski: That the season started with Adam Thielen begging out of Carolina to come back to the Vikings, and it is close to ending with him begging out to play in Pittsburgh. Thielen wasn’t making an impact on the field, but that move really sums up this season as a whole. It was a heartwarming story for him to come back home, play his final season and help a playoff-hopeful team early while Jordan Addison was out. He was, seemingly, leaving a very sketchy situation in Carolina for the stability and expectations of the Vikings.
Now the Panthers are the team in the playoff hunt, with young QB Bryce Young taking big steps forward, and the Vikings are a complete mess. Thielen didn’t help himself here with dropped passes and, last week, a healthy scratch. But considering the Vikings gave up assets to get him, and he finished with eight catches for 69 yards and then decided to ask out rather than finish the final weeks of his career at home, it’s indicative of how far off the rails this season has gone.
How these teams match up from a data standpoint
Here is where each team ranks in 2025 in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and DVOA’s strength of schedule:
Vikings
Commanders
Off turnovers
32nd
18th
Def turnovers
24th
30th
Off explosiveness
16th
12th
Def explosiveness
14th
30th
Off efficiency
25th
9th
Def efficiency
20th
29th
Strength of schedule
12th
7th
Predictions
Lewis: Commanders 23, Vikings 19. I still cannot do it. Washington’s defense ranks 3oth in explosive play rate allowed, but I do think their front can cause problems. My perspective on the Vikings’ situation is simple. Until they prove they can get competent quarterback play, it’s going to be too difficult for me to pick them.
Krawczynski: Vikings 18, Commanders 17. I’m sure I’m going to be wrong here, but Washington has lost seven in a row. That skid includes blowout losses to the Chiefs, Lions, Seahawks and Cowboys. Both of these teams are really bad. If the Vikings are going to win one game the rest of the season, I think they do it here on the leg of Will the Thrill. If it goes as poorly as it has gone for the last month, heaven help everyone over there.
