How did the Chiefs fall apart? How did the Bills stun the Pats? Our experts’ Week 15 takeaways
By Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Jourdan Rodrigue
Each Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.
A trio of AFC quarterbacks — Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes — has combined to win the last three MVP awards while dominating NFL headlines. All three were again in focus on a Sunday highlighted by a thrilling road rally and a crushing home defeat.
Allen was the star in New England as the Buffalo Bills rallied from 21 points down to stun the first-place New England Patriots, 35-31. Jackson and his Baltimore Ravens stayed relevant with a workmanlike showing in Cincinnati, where they officially eliminated the Bengals. And Mahomes and his dynastic Kansas City Chiefs saw their playoff hopes end after a 16-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, in which Mahomes was knocked out with a knee injury.
NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Jourdan Rodrigue share their thoughts on a Week 15 in which Allen and Jackson kept their chances alive, while Mahomes was forced to reckon with his first pro season that will end short of the playoffs.
The Chiefs’ playoff chances ended with a home loss to the Chargers, and with Mahomes injured and in the locker room. How should this season be remembered for the three-time reigning AFC champs?
Rodrigue: While the image of Mahomes limping through the tunnel with the help of Chiefs medical staff will probably encapsulate the results of this bad season, I think more about all of the little moments of on-field frustration that were evident across players’ and coaches’ faces as the weeks continued. I think about a team trying to squeeze every last drop out of its previous era — understandable, considering the resume — without fully committing to evolving some positions and even areas of their scheme (thinking first and foremost of the run game that too often depended on Mahomes).
When I’ve spoken with coaches who regularly appear in the playoffs, they say that the length of a full season and deep postseason run takes such a toll on the mental and physical well-being of a team, top to bottom. Not having a long offseason to recover — and to retool some schematic details — is a real disadvantage (albeit a champagne problem) and maybe getting forced into such an offseason will be a good thing for this organization.
It’s hard to be a dynasty, and this season the Chiefs sure made it look like it.
Jones: It should be remembered as the year when Father Time caught up to this generation’s dynasty. The Chiefs haven’t been bad, but for as good as Mahomes and coach Andy Reid are, Mahomes can’t do it alone and Reid can’t mask all of the roster deficiencies around his elite quarterback. The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been awful. They actually rank in the top 10 in total offensive EPA. But the offensive line has been banged up for some time now and can’t protect or run-block consistently. Mahomes is throwing to a 36-year-old Travis Kelce and a bunch of No. 2 wideouts and lacks a true game-changing target. Defensively, Chris Jones isn’t the same dominant force that he once was, and there are few consistent difference-makers on that unit as well. Kansas City GM Brett Veach will have a busy offseason trying to retool this roster and extend the Chiefs’ window of contention.
Nguyen: This should be remembered as the season in which Reid learned that it’s important to have a good under-center run game in this era of football. Defenses are light and play 2-high at a consistent rate. The Chiefs should have learned that lesson after their Super Bowl loss, but they instead doubled down on their passing game. Their offensive line will be good when healthy, but they really need to upgrade the running back position and commit to a run game. With Mahomes hurt, it should be an even bigger sign that they need to take the load off of him in the future. On a side note, if Kelce retires, it would be cool to replace him with Kyle Pitts, who could be a free agent if the Atlanta Falcons don’t franchise tag him.
The Bills and Patriots played an absolute classic in New England, with the Bills rallying from a 21-point deficit to win. Did that tell you more about the veteran Bills or the upstart Patriots?
Nguyen: The Patriots’ pass protection has to improve for them to be a true playoff contender, and unfortunately, they just don’t appear to have enough talent at receiver. Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte are fine, but when the playoffs start, not having a bona fide No. 1 option for Drake Maye is going to hurt, as good as he’s been. The Patriots can create explosives on offense, but if you can limit those, they have a hard time moving the ball with efficiency. Defensively, they really need defensive tackle Milton Williams back. Their run defense has been awful without him, and they aren’t creating as much interior pressure. The Bills took advantage.
Jones: The Bills’ comeback victory should serve as a reminder of why it’s hard to count them out, despite their warts. They’d certainly like to start off better and not need a ferocious comeback to get the job done. However, the Bills are a resilient, veteran bunch that didn’t panic and kept swinging.
This was the fourth time in the last five games that we’ve seen them deliver a dominant second-half performance and earn a victory. First, they outscored the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 in the second half to win 44-32; then they outscored the Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 in the second half to win 26-7. Last week, the Bills outscored the Bengals by 15 in the second half to win 39-34. This week’s second-half rally came against one of the hottest teams in the league and sent a message that the Bills remain one of the AFC’s top teams, and that their Super Bowl aspirations are alive and well.
The Bills came all the way back to stun the Patriots on the road. (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
Rodrigue: We already knew that it would be a tough task to sweep the Josh Allen-led Bills, even with the Patriots rolling like they have been. For as much deserved praise as the Patriots have been getting this season, we can’t forget that they’re also still a team with a lot of young or new players, and figuring out how to win these types of games together is a hard-to-define yet crucial element of building a real contender. I expect this well-coached, talented Pats group to bounce back just fine.
What I’m more intrigued (and puzzled) by is the Bills’ ability to turn on a huge performance in the second half but not put many complete games together. As analyst Ollie Connolly noted, the Bills are No. 1 in offensive EPA per play, second in offensive success rate and sixth in defensive success rate specifically in the second halves of games. It could be adjustments by coach Sean McDermott, it could be unleashing the “full Josh Allen” or it could be something else; either way, the Bills are what I’d call “selectively dangerous.”
The Ravens entered this weekend with two straight AFC North losses, but bounced back with a 24-0 win over Joe Burrow’s Bengals. Should the Ravens again be considered the division favorites?
Rodrigue: Well, if it’s a two-team conversation between the Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers (and let’s be honest, it has been all year with or without Burrow) … I’m picking the team with Lamar Jackson at quarterback.
Nguyen: Though the Bengals’ defense is awful, what was encouraging was Jackson finally looked healthy. He just hasn’t had juice as a runner this season, but his legs looked like a weapon again, which will be huge for this closing stretch. I don’t trust the Steelers’ offense, and the defense will be at least temporarily without T.J. Watt, who suffered a partially collapsed lung earlier this week. The Steelers’ defense was starting to play better but losing their best player is going to hurt. Aaron Rodgers is just too old and risk-averse to carry that team. It should come down to the final game of the season when the two rivals will play each other in Pittsburgh. I think the Ravens will win that game and the division.
Jones: Last week’s loss to the Steelers stung the Ravens and made their road more challenging, but they still have life and remain a threat to win the AFC North and make some noise in the postseason. It was encouraging to see the Ravens get their ground game going (100 yards from Derrick Henry to lead the way), but you would have liked to have seen them have a little more overall success against a bad Bengals defense. But Baltimore’s own defense did an outstanding job of holding Burrow and the Bengals scoreless, forcing two turnovers and scoring a touchdown on an interception return. That’s definitely the type of backing that Jackson and the offense need if they expect to wrestle the division crown away from the Steelers and challenge for AFC supremacy.
After one of the worst passing performances of Jalen Hurts’ career, the Super Bowl MVP responded with a near-perfect performance against the Las Vegas Raiders. Was that a sign of things to come for Philly’s offense, or just a momentary bounce based on a bad opponent?
Jones: Look, it wasn’t a prolific day, but Hurts (who had a 154.9 passer rating) was highly effective and showed what he’s capable of when everything around him is going well. He had time to throw. His receivers found holes in the coverages. And … he was (as stated) playing a really bad Raiders team. I don’t think there are any sighs of relief at Eagles headquarters. I don’t take this as a sign of things to come, because the Eagles won’t have the luxury of playing this caliber opponent every week. It’s a reminder of what Hurts is capable of. But it has just been super rare this season that Philly and its quarterback have managed to have everything working in their favor when matched up with quality opponents.
Jalen Hurts used his legs as weapons as the Eagles blew out the Raiders. (Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)
Rodrigue: Hurts wasn’t just great passing — even though he only threw it 15 times, he had 175 passing yards and three touchdowns, and connected on a deep perimeter ball to receiver DeVonta Smith that couldn’t have been placed any better near the end of the first quarter. He also rushed for 39 yards, his highest total since Week 4, and the situational management of those times he opted to run was crucial. Hurts converted two long third downs on the ground that put the Eagles in scoring position. I also appreciated seeing more play action, even though the Eagles’ style of it is rather slow-developing. Normally they use play action at about a 25 percent rate, but against Las Vegas they increased the rate to 40 percent and it accounted for 70 yards and a touchdown, per Next Gen Stats. Let’s be clear: The Raiders are historically awful. But Hurts and the rest of the Eagles’ offense (including coordinator Kevin Patullo) needed a get-right game, and they got one.
Nguyen: The Raiders’ defense isn’t as bad as their record indicates, but from a personnel perspective they have some major holes, and the Eagles exploited them, going after rookie corner Darien Porter. I don’t think it says that much about the Eagles’ passing game getting fixed. Hurts exploited one-on-ones to the outside, which has always been his strength. However, the good defenses haven’t given him those opportunities and unless Philadelphia’s run game becomes elite again, he won’t get them at a high rate. Getting Hurts some designed runs called was good, though, and it needs to happen more often.
