The Warriors head to Portland with Steph Curry back from injury, and although Deni Avdija is producing a career-season for the Trail Blazers, he might have a tough time of it against Golden State.
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Best Bet
Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trail Blazers (1:10pm)
Deni Avdija
Under 8.5 Assists
Understand he’s playing the point for Portland, but this is a crazy high line for Deni Avdija.
Avdija has failed to cover this line in his last four games, averaging 6.8 assists over this stretch, and it won’t get any easier against the Warriors.
Golden State is the most difficult team for point guards to produce assists against over the last month, 22% below average. If Avdija couldn’t cover against the second easiest in New Orleans last start, he won’t cover against the Warriors.
Same Game Multi
Warriors / Green 6+ Rebounds / Avdija Under 8.5 Assists
Next Best
Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers (7:10am)
Bub Carrington
Over 21.5 PRA
Made the most of his starter spot last start against the Cavs, finishing with 27 points, 6 rebounds and 8 assists.
I don’t expect a repeat of this by Bub Carrington, but I do still believe he covers this PRA line against the Pacers.
Minutes have been sky-high the last two games with Middleton, Sarr, Kispert and Coulibaly, playing 37+ minutes in the last two games as a starter, where he’s covered this line quite easily. In Carrington’s last three games where he’s played 30+ minutes he’s covered the PRA of 21.5, and will do so again.
Same Game Multi
McCollum 20+ Points / Carrington Over 21.5 PRA / Pacers
Value Bet
Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets (10:10am)
Noah Clowney
15+ Points
Noah Clowney has been a revelation for the Nets since the injury to Cam Thomas.
Despite being quiet in his last two games, Clowney still averages 16.3 points from his 16 games without CT this season, hitting 15+ points in nine of those games including seven of his last ten.
He gets a good look against the Giannis-less Bucks, who are conceding points to power forwards 10% above average over the last month, so based off this current points line of 12.5 appears low.
Same Game Multi
Clowney Over 12.5 Points / Wolf Over 13.5 PR / Porter 6+ Assists
Monday NBA Multi
Today’s NBA Multi
Pacers / Warriors / Pelicans +4.5
