Technically, the Detroit Lions still hold their own postseason destiny in their hands. If they finish the season with four straight wins, they’re in.
But that’s rarely how things work in the NFL. It’s hard to win every week in this league and, more likely than not, the Lions will need at least a little help along the way if they’re going to make their third straight postseason.
So let’s take a look at the other NFL Week 15 games that matter to Detroit’s postseason hopes, and show the preferred outcome. Welcome to our Week 15 Detroit Lions Rooting Guide.
Browns (3-10) at Bears (9-4) — 1 p.m. ET — FOX
The Bears remain the most likely team to catch, for the Lions, so you want them to lose as many games as possible. As long as the Lions at least match the Bears’ record over the next three games, the Week 18 matchup between Chicago and Detroit will have postseason stakes (unless the Cowboys or both the Panthers and Bucs surpass the two NFC North teams).
Raiders (2-11) at Eagles (8-5) — 1 p.m. ET — FOX
In all honesty, this game doesn’t matter much. But if you’re still chasing Detroit’s long-shot odds at winning the division (currently 6% per the NYT Playoff Simulator), an Eagles loss would help in seeding. Given the Lions lost the head-to-head against Philadelphia, Detroit would need a better overall record to surpass them in the standings.
Packers (9-3-1) at Broncos (11-2) — 4:25 p.m. ET — CBS
If the Bears and Packers both lost—and the Lions beat the Rams—Detroit would find themselves down just a half-game for the NFC North lead. Those three outcomes alone would push Detroit’s division title odds from 6% to 22%, per the NYT simulator.
Panthers (7-6) at Saints (3-10) — 4:25 p.m. ET — FOX
Again, this one doesn’t matter all that much, but if you’re concerned about an NFC South team making the Wild Card, a Panthers loss would pretty much seal that it won’t happen. The Bucs are already at seven losses, and if the Panthers drop their seventh, it would almost seal the fate for the NFC South to only produce one playoff spot. That’s because the Panthers and Buccaneers still face off against each other twice, meaning either one team will have nine losses or both will have eight. That would pave the way for a theoretical 10-win Lions team to possibly make the postseason—with a lot of other help.
Titans (2-11) at 49ers (9-4) — 4:25 p.m. ET — FOX
The 49ers are the second-most likely team for the Lions to catch. It’s going to be tough for the Lions to surpass them because the primary tiebreaker (since there is no head-to-head) is conference record, and San Francisco is 8-2 in conference play to Detroit’s 5-4. So it would really help if the 49ers just fell apart down the stretch.
Colts (8-5) at Seahawks (10-3) — 4:25 p.m. ET — CBS
Seattle is another team that is going to be very tough to catch, but their schedule makes it possible. In addition to this game against the Colts, they have the Rams, Panthers, and 49ers—three teams all jockeying for playoff position.
Vikings (5-8) at Cowboys (6-6-1) — 8:20 p.m. ET — NBC
Dallas can’t catch the Lions if Detroit goes 3-1 down the stretch, but if you want to open up those possibilities of a 10-7 Lions team making the playoffs, it would just take one more Cowboys loss to ensure they wouldn’t jump Detroit.
Now, this rooting guide involves a lot of huge upsets this week, unfortunately. But if somehow all of the results went the Lions’ way—including Detroit beating Los Angeles—here’s how the NFC playoff picture would look.
Theoretical NFC playoff standings after Week 15
- Rams: 10-4
- Packers: 9-4-1
- Eagles: 8-6
- Buccaneers: 7-7
Wild Card race (top three advance)
5. Seahawks: 10-4
6. 49ers: 9-5
7. Lions: 9-5
8. Bears: 9-5
9. Panthers: 7-7
10. Cowboys: 6-7-1
Note: the Lions would be “in” over the Bears because of their head-to-head win, but the 49ers would hold the six seed because of a better conference record.
Not only would the Lions jump into a playoff spot for the first time in weeks, but they would just be a single game out of the NFC’s No. 1 seed, while holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rams. In terms of overall playoff odds, per the NYT Playoff Simulator, the Lions’ playoff probability would go from 39% to 74% with these results.
While all of this is very unlikely to happen, it does highlight how much things can change week to week. So grab your pom-poms and root like hell on Sunday.
