The Oregon Ducks start their march toward a potential national championship with James Madison on Saturday at Autzen Stadium.
The heavily-favored Ducks (11-1) shouldn’t take a playoff opponent lightly, but the No. 12 Dukes (12-1) were built with a $1 million NIL budget, while Oregon undoubtedly spent more than that just on quarterback Dante Moore.
In other words, Oregon should win and advance to play No. 4 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl.
However, upsets do happen.
No. 12 James Madison (12-1) at No. 5 Oregon (11-1)
- When: Saturday, Dec. 20
- Time: 4:30 p.m. PT
- Where: Autzen Stadium
- TV: TNT/HBO Max
- Coaches: Dan Lanning, fourth year (46-7). JMU’s Bob Chesney, second year (21-5).
- Latest line: Oregon by 21.5.
- Stream: You can watch this game on DIRECTV (free trial), with Fubo (free trial), or with Sling (a Sling day pass to watch this game and more is just $4.99). Streaming broadcasts for this game will be available on these streaming services locally in Oregon and Washington, but may not be available outside of the Pacific Northwest, depending on your location.
What’s at stake
A trip to the Orange Bowl in Miami.
The winner moves on to face No. 4 Texas Tech in the quarterfinals. The loser begins planning for next season.
Failing would mean drastically different things for both programs.
LEFT: Oregon head coach Dan Lanning as the No. 6 Ducks face the Washington Huskies in a college football game at Husky Stadium in Seattle on Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025. – Sean Meagher/The Oregonian
RIGHT: James Madison head coach Bob Chesney is one of the hot names being talked about as Penn State’s next head coach. Chesney’s Dukes finish their regular season at home against Coastal Carolina today. AP
The two coaches will square off on Saturday, Dec. 21, 2025 when their teams matchup in the first round of the College Football Playoffs at Autzen Stadium.Sean Meagher
A loss for JMU, the Sun Belt Conference champions, would end a fantastic season that saw them reach the national playoffs.
A loss for the Ducks would be regarded as one of the most disappointing in program history.
Oregon offense vs. JMU’s defense
JMU ranks 10th in scoring defense (15.8 points per game), second in both rush defense (76.2 yards per game) and total defense (247.6), and 12th in pass defense (171.5).
The Dukes average 2.8 sacks per game, 19th in the country. Defensive lineman Sahir West leads the team with seven sacks. Xavier Holmes has six.
“Just extremely disruptive and they do a great job creating one-on-ones, making it challenging, where guys are gonna have to win single blocks,” Lanning said.
A potent running game could help neutralize JMU’s pass rush. The Ducks ran very well against Wisconsin and Iowa, when each ranked 10th against the run.
The Dukes’ defensive line is on the smallish side in comparison to most lines Oregon faced in the Big Ten.
Meanwhile, Oregon’s offensive line is a finalist for the Joe Moore Award, given to the most outstanding line unit in college football.
The Oregon offensive line, including guard Emmanuel Pregnon (#75), huddle up before the snap as the No. 6 Ducks face the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a college football game at Autzen Stadium in Eugene on Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025. Sean Meagher/The OregonianSean Meagher/The Oregonian
Oregon center Iapani Laloulu said JMU’s defensive front moves well, but lacks bulk.
“They’re not the biggest guys we’ve ever played, but you can tell that they play elite techniques,” he said. “So, it’s up to us that we got to play with great technique and fundamentals.”
JMU can’t afford to stack the box to stop the run, giving quarterback Dante Moore and UO’s wide receivers extra space to work with in the passing game.
Chesney has been impressed with Moore’s play this season.
“To me, it’s the willingness of the quarterback to throw into coverage,” Chesney said. “He understands tight windows and trusts his arm.”
Moore is ready for the challenge.
“I’m super excited,” he said. “This is something I’ve, of course, dreamed about all my life.”
Oregon defense vs. JMU’s offense
JMU’s offense also comes with impressive statistical credentials.
The Dukes rank 10th nationally in scoring offense (37.3 points per game), sixth in rushing offense (245.8 yards per game) and 22nd in total offense (448.3).
But JMU accomplished all of that while playing a schedule ESPN FPI ranked as the 121st-toughest in the country.
CORRECTS STATE TO S.C. NOT N.C. – James Madison quarterback Alonza Barnett III (14) throws a touchdown pass against Coastal Carolina during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Conway, S.C., Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)AP
The schedule featured one Power Four opponent, Louisville (8-4). The Cardinals won that game 28-14 and held JMU to 264 total yards.
Oregon’s defense has had some vulnerable moments along the way against two Big Ten teams. Only No. 1 Indiana and USC scored at least 20 points in regulation play against the Ducks.
Could JMU be the third? Only if it can generate big plays.
“You watch their offense, they create explosive plays all over the board,” Lanning said.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett III is a playmaker who generated 2,533 yards passing with 21 touchdowns and 544 yards rushing with 14 touchdowns.
“I think what he doesn’t get enough credit for is the ability to connect on deep balls downfield,” Lanning said. “They’re a team that has a great play-action game.”
Barnett should remind Oregon fans of Washington’s dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr. However, during Oregon’s 26-14 win at UW on Nov. 29, the Ducks set out to prevent Williams from generating big plays and succeeded.
There is little reason to believe UO can’t do the same at home against Barnett.
Complementing him is running back Wayne Knight, who has 1,263 yards rushing and nine touchdowns. The finalist for the Paul Hornung Award was named a second-team All-American as an all-purpose player by the Associated Press.
“They run behind their pads, good at breaking tackles,” UO linebacker Bryce Boettcher said. “We’re gonna have to tackle well and be physical. They’ve got a solid O-line, too. Without the O-line, their running game wouldn’t be as good as it is. So, we’ve got to play physical ball. Starts upfront with our D-line.”
Matchup to watch
Oregon’s offensive line against West.
James Madison defensive lineman Sahir West (15) celebrates after play during the first half of the Sun Belt Championship NCAA college football game, Friday, Dec. 5, 2025, in Harrisonburg, Va. (AP Photo/Robert Simmons)AP
JMU’s best chance to slow down UO’s offense will come from forcing third downs and getting to Moore. That would likely require West, who received Sun Belt freshman of the year honors after posting 14 tackles for loss, to make several plays on defense. The freshman was so good this season that a Power Four team might pull him away next season. Maybe he goes with Chesney to UCLA.
. . .
What Lanning said: “I think you always feel the pressure in moments, especially when we had a hiccup early against Indiana that we didn’t have any room to leave any indecision for anybody afterwards. And our guys really approached that each game has a life of its own and we have to go attack it. And we can do it in a variety of ways. And I think that’s probably the biggest thing we showed is we can win in different ways. I think all three phases came together quite a bit in the last four games, where special teams were making big plays, defense or offense were making big plays for us, that were certainly the difference.”
What Chesney said on preparing to play at Autzen: “We want to try and make it to where we can’t even hear each other on both sides of the ball, knowing that it will affect the offense and the special teams more than it will the defense. But that is definitely what we’re jumping into. We have all their songs, all the things they do, their band, everything we could gather is what we’re putting on display out there for our guys, so that’s something that they’ve heard before.”
. . .
Key stats
Lanning is 4-0 against Group of Six programs, winning those games by an average score of 29.5 points per contest.
Prediction
Oregon is superior to JMU in every aspect. The Ducks have more talent, more speed, more size and they will be at home. Expect UO to be fired up for a playoff game at home, and to begin making amends for last season’s collapse against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
Score: Oregon 44, JMU 16.
Oregon football 2025 season schedule, scores
