‘The power is in Caerphilly’s hands’published at 22:39 BST
Chris Mason
Political editor
Image source, Matthew HorwoodImage caption,
The result is expected to be confirmed at about 02:00 BST
There is something about this moment that always quickens my pulse.
Polls close in an election, the counting is imminent.
Thousands of individual acts of decision accumulate and determine who will assume an elected office.
The thing with by-elections is they can have an outsized impact on the political weather.
Voters in a sliver of south Wales are picking a new member of the Welsh Parliament, the Senedd.
But in so doing they will also be sending a message to political leaders close and further afield.
A few thoughts for the hours ahead as we await the result:
How bad do things turn out for Labour? They have an up to now unblemished track record of victory in Caerphilly – in elections to the Welsh Parliament and to Westminster.
Many – including many within Labour – expect that run of wins to come to a crashing end tonight.
And then the big question beyond that: Who wins? Reform UK or Plaid Cymru?
This result will shape the mood of Wales’ political parties ahead of the Senedd elections across the country next May.
And they will shape the mood miles away in Westminster – as the Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the Reform leader Nigel Farage, Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and others work out what the result tells them about how things are looking.
The power – right now at least – is in Caerphilly’s hands. And that is what democracy is all about.
