The WTA is back in China with the WTA Hong Kong Open. There are ten more matches scheduled, and LWOS has decided to cover nine of the ten. We aim to bring you most of the early-round matches from the WTA Hong Kong tournament, regardless of the players’ rankings. Please share your thoughts in the comments.
WTA Hong Kong Open
Cirstea–Galfi: Time 07:00
H2H: 0-0
Sorana-Mihaela Cirstea vs Dalma Galfi is the first meeting between the two of them at any level. Both women are 6-4 in their last ten matches, and both had a three-game winning streak in there, as well. Additionally, both women have admirable losses during the same window. Galfi is having the better overall year. She’s 42-23 overall and 12-8 on a hardcourt. Cirstea is 28-19 overall, but she’s 24-13 on a hardcourt. This is the first time either player has played at WTA Hong Kong. While both women are also coming off a competitive loss, Cirstea’s was in the semifinals, while Galfi’s was in the qualifying round.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Cirstea by about 2-1 odds. Cirstea already has one hardcourt title this year. Both of Galfi’s titles took place on a clay court. Given how well Cirstea performed in her semifinal loss to Leylah Fernandez, it’s not a shock that the books think she ought to win this match. Cirstea’s lone title this year also came fairly recently, so she’s also got that going in her favor. Galfi has done well, too, but she hasn’t made it to a quarterfinal since July. It just makes more sense to take Cirstea straight up.
That being said, Cirstea winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Cirstea winning @1.5 @WilliamHill
Kalinskaya – Rakhimova: Time 10:00
H2H: 2-0
Anna Kalinskaya vs Kamilla Rakhimova will square off for the third time. Their last meeting was earlier this year in the first round of WTA Washington, which Kalinskaya won in straight sets. She also won their 2024 WTA Dubai qualifying match in straight sets; both matches were on a hardcourt. Rakhimova hasn’t been having a great year as a singles player. She’s done much better in doubles. She’s 27-32 overall and 12-20 on a hardcourt. Kalinskaya is only 23-20 overall and 14-13 on a hardcourt, but at least she has a winning record on both. She’s also coming off of a quarterfinal appearance in her last tournament.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Kalinskaya as a solid favorite. It’s close to 3-1 on most books. The average is 1.33 to 3.31, so you’re not going to make much taking Kalinskaya straight up. Taking Kalinskaya 2:0 at 1.91 would be my recommendation for this match. Another solid option is the over/under on 20.5 games. The over on 10Bet is at 1.95 and the under on Bet365 is 1.91, so you’re going to find value either way. Thinking about it a bit more, I think a total games played bet might be more solid, given that three of Kalinskaya’s five matches have gone three sets.
That being said, Over 20.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Over 20.5 games @1.95 @10Bet
Wang – Fernandez: Time 08:30
H2H: 0-1
Xiyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez will be the second meeting between the two of them. Their only other match was a second-round 2024 French Open match, which Fernandez won in straight sets. Fernandez is having a solid year, and she just won her second tournament of the year when she beat Tereza Valentova in the final at WTA Osaka after a three-set slugfest. In fact, both of Fernandez’s tournament wins have come after July 20th of this year, so it seems she’s determined to finish strong. Wang also won a title this year, but it came at ITF Lexington in August. While she has that ITF title and another ITF semifinal, she hasn’t made it past the round of 16 in any WTA event this year.
Best Bet to Make
There’s a solid reason why Fernandez is a sizable favorite in this match. Aside from the fact that she won this tournament in 2023 and was a semifinalist last year, there’s also the matter of her current form. While Wang is 5-5 in her last ten matches, Fernandez is 7-3 with a tournament victory. Her only losses during that time were to Coco Gauff, Naomi Osaka, and Elena Rybakina. She’s definitely playing at a high level and should be able to win this match in straight sets.
That being said, Fernandez winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Fernandez winning @1.66 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports
