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One of the biggest storylines entering the NBA season was the future of Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Some pundits felt his days with the Bucks could be numbered, despite the organization making several expensive moves in the offseason to demonstrate commitment to winning. A trade demand was certainly possible.
Milwaukee started with an 8-5 record and many wondered if the Bucks could make a deep run, given they had the conference’s best player and so many injuries were plaguing other teams.
However, Antetokounmpo has been nursing a groin strain and the team is struggling without their two-time MVP. The Bucks have lost four straight games by at least nine points and failed to cover each one.
Milwaukee visits the Heat as 6.5-point road underdogs on Wednesday with a total of 233.5 points.
The Heat have been one of the league’s biggest surprises. They currently sit in first place in the Southeast Division with a 12-6 record, despite battling numerous injuries. All-Star guard Tyler Herro just made his season debut in their last game, returning from ankle surgery.
Milwaukee Bucks head coach Doc Rivers complains about a referees call during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Cleveland Cavaliers in Cleveland, Monday, Nov. 17, 2025. AP
Miami is also 12-6 against the spread (ATS), which only ranks behind the red-hot Pistons and their 12-5 ATS mark. The Heat are routinely outperforming expectations and that speaks to the excellent coaching of Erik Spoelstra.
I think that continues against this short-handed Bucks squad. Doc Rivers is struggling to find a rotation that can help until Antetokounmpo returns. Unfortunately for them, I think that is a fool’s errand. He is worth as much as anyone to the point spread and there is no real solution for his absence.
Betting on the NBA?
The Heat had covered four straight until welcoming back Herro into the rotation. He scored 24 points, including the game-winning bucket in a narrow victory over the Mavericks, but his 18 shot attempts did seem to disrupt their ball movement. However, an adjustment period is expected so I still think they’re a team that is undervalued by the betting market.
I have a 78-66-2 ATS record in this Post sports section and my next play is Miami -6.5 points (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
