On Saturday, the BYU football team will look to win their first conference title as a Power Four program, and secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Cougars will rematch against Texas Tech after suffering a blowout loss in Lubbock last month.
BYU is a big underdog in this game. Oddsmakers favor the Red Raiders by 12.5 points. In this article, we will turn to the advanced analytics and what they are saying about BYU’s chances to upset Texas Tech.
BCFToys is more bullish on BYU’s chances than the oddsmakers. Their model gives BYU a 30.7% chance to beat Texas Tech with a projected final score of 26-19 in favor of the Red Raiders. BCFToys ranks BYU as the 14th team nationally with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of no. 18 nationally and an offensive ranking of 18th nationally.
Texas Tech ranks ranks 5th nationally with an offensive ranking of 35th and a defensive rating of 2nd.
On paper, the BYU defense against the Texas Tech offense is the biggest opportunity in this game. If BYU can limit the turnovers that gave Tech short fields in the first matchup, this defense is capable of holding Tech to 20-27 points.
SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-Texas Tech.
SP+ gives BYU a 23% chance to win with an expected final score of 33-21. BYU ranks 14th in SP+. Most notably, SP+ believes the BYU offense has caught up to the BYU defense after trailing the defense throughout the season. BYU ranks 20th in offensive SP+ and 20th in defensive SP+.
Texas Tech is a juggernaut in the SP+ rankings. The Red Raiders rank 3rd in SP+ with an offense that ranks 2nd nationally and a defense that ranks 4th nationally.
FPI is more bullish on BYU’s chances. FPI gives BYU a 33.4% chance to win.
CFB Graphs gives BYU an 33.3% chance to beat Texas Tech with a projected final score of 18-28.
Texas Tech has so few weaknesses on paper that it’s challenging to find an area where BYU can take advantage. By the metrics, one area where BYU is better is in the redzone. That was on display in the first matchup as well. BYU’s defense will allow yards, but they are very stingy near their own endzone. Texas Tech’s primary weakness this season has been redzone offense. The BYU defense will need to force more field goals than touchdowns if BYU is going to win this game.
On offense, BYU is going to have to be more creative on early downs than they were in the first matchup. The Cougars leaned on their running game in Lubbock, even though star running back LJ Martin was banged up. BYU came predictable on early downs and it consistently put them behind the chains.
Texas Tech ranks 1st nationally in defensive success rate allowed on early downs. Aaron Roderick is going to have his best game of the year to produce enough points to win this game.
