College Football Best Bets, Picks, Predictions for Friday’s NCAAF Games — 11/14

7:30 p.m.

9 p.m.

Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

This is such a major revenge spot for NC Central to avenge a loss from last season, which cost the Eagles the MEAC Championship.

NC Central had a chance to win that game late after falling behind, 17-0, and gave away several good chances. I imagine they have had this one circled for a while, and I expect a max effort out of the Eagles here at home. I’m laying the -3.5.

The NC Central defensive line is going to be a difference-maker in this game.

The SC State offensive line has struggled to pass protect this season, allowing 27 sacks and 55 tackles for loss. The Bulldogs’ O-line grades out as the worst pass-protection unit in the MEAC.

There should be very little time for Atkins to go through his progression, and there’s not much of a rushing threat with the QB.

South Carolina State has been efficient against the pass this season, but the Bulldogs haven’t seen anything like what they’re about to. Harris will throw the ball effectively against this secondary, as he has all season, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.

The SC State defense has also had an issue with missing tackles and failing to pursue ball-carriers, and some of that sloppy play could cost it here.

The motivation for NC Central should be at an all-time high after how last year’s game played out. I fully expect the Eagles to be locked in from the start in this one, and being at home will give this team the edge.

With the stronger quarterback play, stronger pass rush and better team discipline, the Eagles will win this game and cover on Friday night.

Pick: NC Central -3.5

What’s made the Cardinals so deadly has been their running game, led by Isaac Brown, who leads all of college football with 8.6 yards per carry. Unfortunately for coach Jeff Brohm, Brown may be out for a while, suffering a severe injury against Virginia Tech.

Luckily, Isaac Brown isn’t the only top running back the Cardinals have. Second in command is Keyjuan Brown, who has been a total monster in the backfield, averaging 6.9 YPC while running for 136 yards last week.

The loss of Isaac Brown definitely hurts the Cardinals, but I advise you not to overlook Keyjuan Brown.

Not only that, Louisville’s offensive line does a great job at creating openings for its tailbacks.

Don’t believe me? Isaac ran for over 120 yards against Miami a few weeks ago — a Miami defense ranked sixth in the nation in stopping the run.

Clemson’s run defense is exceptional, with projected first-round defensive tackle Peter Woods, but the Tigers’ run defense grade has continued to dip as the season has worn on.

I’m not going to target the total here because both Clemson and Louisville are far from sure things in that category all season, and there’s no real value in the moneyline.

So, given how abysmal Clemson has been all season and its downward trajectory against the run, I’ll ride with the Cardinals on Saturday.

Pick: Louisville -2.5 or Better

Oregon opened as a 23.5-point favorite, and the line grew to as high as -26.5 throughout the week.

Power ratings agree with the move.

But with a low total of 44 and the multiple injuries to starters, the line may have moved too far.

For Minnesota, running back Darius Taylor is questionable, and I err on the side of him not going, given his previous injury history.

When Taylor plays a full game, it’s certainly a boost to the Gophers’ offense (24-6 win over Nebraska, 23-10 over Buffalo). But he’s played so few full games this season that I’m not sure Taylor should be factored into the line.

Defensively, Minnesota has some dudes. Edge rusher Anthony Smith ranks third in the Big Ten with 33 pressures, and an absurd 11 of those turned into sacks (most in the Big Ten).

Meanwhile, weather and injuries stunted Oregon’s last two results — a 21-7 home win over Wisconsin and an 18-16 thriller at Iowa. Any victory at Kinnick Stadium should be considered impressive.

But the Ducks return home after a physical and emotionally thrilling game to play on a short week. At the same time, Minnesota comes off a bye — PJ Fleck is 13-4 straight up at Minnesota coming off a bye and 4-2 against the spread since 2021.

Oregon also closes out the season with a couple of tough games against West Coast teams in USC and Washington. It can’t afford to lose any conference games, but currently, Oregon sits outside the Big Ten Championship window.

So, why push banged-up guys to play in a game where the Ducks are 25-point favorites?

Although head coach Dan Lanning is good about not letting his team overlook opponents (he loves a manufactured disrespect storyline), Oregon did go 0-2 against the spread before playing Ohio State and Washington last season.

There are just too many points being laid for a conference game with a low total, Minnesota with a rest advantage, Oregon battling injuries and a stretch of critical games upcoming.

It’s gross, but here we are.

Pick: Minnesota +24 or Better