LUBBOCK — Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire expected this question and, to break ahead of the curve, he answered it before the microphone had been passed on to anyone else.
“The Heisman is given to the best football player,” McGuire said Saturday in an opening statement after Texas Tech’s 29-7 win vs. BYU. “It’s not given to the best quarterback — they have an award for that — and you can’t say that Jacob Rodriguez, at his position, is not playing at that level, an elite level, an elite level, as good as anybody in the country.”
Rodriguez, a senior linebacker, finished with a team-high 14 tackles, an interception and a fumble recovery in Saturday’s win vs. the seventh-ranked team in the College Football Playoff poll. He leads the country with 7 forced fumbles and leads Texas Tech with 84 tackles and 3 interceptions.
His 93.5 grade is the fourth-best among all defensive players, per Pro Football Focus, and he’s done so for a Texas Tech defense that has been statistically among the best units in college football.
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A grassroots Heisman Trophy campaign has begun because of that.
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The Red Raiders (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes have championed Rodriguez for the award on social media, while McGuire urged national media to spread the word as well. The Wichita Falls Rider alum leads the Heisman Trophy’s fan vote leaderboard.
“That kid deserves to be a part of that,” McGuire said. “He really does.”
Rodriguez does not have listed Heisman Trophy odds by any major sportsbook as of Sunday morning. His teammate David Bailey — a linebacker whose 10 sacks lead the nation — doesn’t either. Zero defenders do, in fact, largely because a full-time defensive player hasn’t won the award since Michigan cornerback Charles Woodson did so 28 years ago.
A player from the state of Texas hasn’t won the Heisman Trophy since Baylor’s Robert Griffin III (2011) and Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel (2012) went back-to-back more than a decade ago. They’re the only two players from an in-state school that’s won the award this century. TCU quarterback Max Duggan, in 2022, is the state’s most recent finalist.
There aren’t necessarily hard-and-fast qualifiers for the award. Seven of the 12 finalists in the previous three years were members of playoff-bound teams. The three winners in each of those years — like Colorado’s two-way star Travis Hunter, LSU quarterback Jaden Daniels — missed the playoffs but yielded incredible statistical seasons.
The three favorites this season — Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Alabama’s Ty Simpson — are each quarterbacks who play for teams currently in a playoff position.
Could any player from the state of Texas join them at the award ceremony on Dec. 13 in New York City? Here’s a breakdown.
The best bet
Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M: Reed is the best of both worlds. He’s enjoyed team and individual success for the No. 3 Aggies (9-0, 6-0 SEC) in a premier conference. He’s totaled 2,571 yards of offense, 25 touchdowns and has led A&M to ranked road wins against Notre Dame and LSU this season.
The sophomore has a legitimate finalist case, and if the Aggies win out and Reed’s level of play doesn’t slip, it may be difficult for voters to leave him out of the discussion. His odds are listed at plus-700, per DraftKings, which are the fourth-best in the nation.
The preseason favorite
Arch Manning, QB, Texas: Ah, yes, remember when Manning had the best odds (plus-600) to win the award in the preseason?
The narrative has changed drastically since. The junior’s stock stumbled when both he and Texas struggled offensively in the first half of the season to draw a heap of criticism. His back-to-back 300-plus yard, 3-touchdown games against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt are encouraging, though, and his raw numbers (2,123 yards, 18 touchdowns, 6 interceptions) aren’t shabby for a team that’s reinserted itself into playoff contention.
Is it possible for Manning to rejoin the Heisman Trophy conversation? Technically, sure, if the No. 11 Longhorns (7-2, 4-1) win out and his performance continues to trend upward at the right time. Is it still a long shot? Most certainly. He has plus-30,000 odds at DraftKings.
The underdog
Drew Mestemaker, QB, North Texas: The zero-star walk-on turned starter has been one of college football’s breakout players for the Mean Green (8-1, 4-1 AAC) this season. He’s thrown for 2,692 yards, 21 touchdowns and 4 interceptions for a North Texas team that’s been among the best Group of Five programs. His best performances — like a 608-yard, 4-touchdown game against Charlotte — have been gaudy.
Here’s where his agenda stumbles: Power conference players dominate the award. BYU’s Ty Detmer (1990) was the last small-conference player to win it. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty was a finalist last year but it took a near-historic season and a postseason berth. Mestemaker would need to have an astronomical finish — and potentially lead the Mean Green into the playoffs — just to have a shot. He has plus-50,000 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The late surge
Kevin Jennings, QB, SMU: The South Oak Cliff product has quietly become one of the nation and state’s most productive quarterbacks thanks to a strong stretch that’s lifted the Mustangs (7-3, 5-1) back into legitimate ACC contention. His 2,810 yards are the third-most in the country and his 21 touchdowns thrown are tied for ninth. Credit back-to-back 300-plus yard games against Miami and Boston College for the boost.
Jennings isn’t in a dissimilar boat to Manning. He could post a strong finish, will his team into the conference title game and garner some down-ballot attention once it’s time to vote. It may just be too little, too late for serious consideration.
Honorable mentions
Sawyer Robertson, QB, Baylor: He’s a prolific passer with 2,780 yards and 26 touchdowns this season (both of which rank top-five nationally) but the Bears (5-4, 3-3) are a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team.
Josh Hoover, QB, TCU: See above. He’s got decent numbers (2,371 yards, 22 touchdowns, 6 interceptions) but not enough team success to back them.
Behren Morton, QB, Texas Tech: Injuries have limited his potential this season and the Red Raiders’ defense is the real story.
Colin Simmons, DE, Texas: Check back in this time next year and the Simmons-for-Heisman agenda might have some real legs. The 17 sacks he’s totaled in 22 career games are no joke.
Twitter: @McFarland_Shawn
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