Tuesday brings a packed NHL schedule highlighted by a compelling matchup between two struggling teams. The ice-cold Toronto Maple Leafs will try to halt their brutal five-game losing streak against the St. Louis Blues, who have been one of the league’s worst defensive teams of late.
St. Louis enters at 6–9–4, allowing 73 goals in 19 games, which is the second-most in the NHL, and posting a league-worst 3.84 goals against per game. Toronto hasn’t fared much better, carrying the second-worst mark at 3.79 and if both defenses continue to falter, this matchup has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout.
For anyone following our Pad Stack challenge, the goal remains the same. We started with just ten dollars and are working to grow that bankroll through calculated, research backed plays. Our most previous run just ended on Monday with our total hitting a season-high $411.47 before being sewered by a last minute empty net goal scored by the Florida Panthers, blowing up our spread on the Vancouver Canucks. We look to bounce back with a very confident pick from Tuesday’s Leafs-Blues clash.
All betting lines are from BetMGM Sportsbook and are subject to change. Hockey is a difficult sport to predict so please gamble responsibly.
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Picks: Leafs ML & Under 6.5 Goals (+210)
Both teams have tough defenses, yet the total for this game is oddly set at 6.0 instead of 6.5 goals. It is strange considering these two clubs have combined for six or more goals in seven of their last eight meetings, and their offensive history would normally suggest that trend continues. Toronto’s offense has helped balance out its shaky defense with the fourth-best goals-per-game rate in the league at 3.53, and the Maple Leafs will be playing at home.
It raises the question of why sportsbooks would list this total so low, especially when other sites have the game at an over or under of 5.5 goals. Some would call this a trap bet. Many will look at similar stats and build a compelling case for a high-scoring matchup, but that likely will not be the outcome.
Toronto is starting goaltender Joseph Woll in what will be his second start of the season. The 27-year-old from Missouri will be facing his hometown team, a matchup he has struggled with, recording two losses, seven goals allowed, and a .857 save percentage in two career starts against St. Louis. The Blues are expected to start Jordan Binnington, who has struggled this season with a 4-5-3 record and a 3.34 goals-against average. Those numbers are even worse against Toronto with a 3.61 goals-against average and a .896 save percentage in nine starts.
It makes little sense to expect either team to play strong defensively on Tuesday, which is exactly why they will. The Maple Leafs are coming in cold and are searching for a bounce-back game, while the Blues have won only three of their last seven and are more likely to drop one. Toronto has also narrowly beaten St. Louis in five of their last nine matchups, and the Maple Leafs should be able to pick up another win on Tuesday.
If Toronto can pull out a home victory while keeping the game under seven goals seven goals, a $10 wager would profit $21, bringing the new bankroll to $31 heading into Wednesday.
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