Crystal Palace goes for a second straight EPL win as short favorites against Manchester United.
Oliver Glasner’s side emerged from the international break with a 2-0 win over Wolves. After a midweek trip to France, Palace tries to keep its perfect home record intact.
Manchester United hosts Everton on Monday to close Matchday 12. Manager Ruben Amorim’s team has captured one road win this season as big underdogs to Liverpool.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Crystal Palace vs Man United prediction.
Crystal Palace vs Man United: Premier League Odds
Man United vs Crystal Palace: Prediction
Based on Crystal Palace’s potential positive regression at home and United’s quietly bad defensive record, my Crystal Palace vs Man United prediction is Over 2.5 Goals (-145).
Palace has run wildly unlucky at home. Glasner’s side has managed eight goals in six fixtures, but the attack’s expected goals tally is 11.6.
That’s the second-best mark at home behind only Manchester City.
Sunday’s match offers a good chance for Palace to see some positive regression.
United, exclusive of Monday’s match, ranks 19th in non-penalty xG allowed and 18th in expected goals against.
The Red Devils have allowed four of six opponents to clear 1.5 goals away from home. To date, only Bournemouth and Burnley have allowed more xG on the road than United.
These two teams faced off in February at Old Trafford. Palace scored twice in that fixture off 2.6 xG and four big scoring chances.
All that said, I like the matchup for United’s attack. Palace plays this fixture on short rest, which could negatively impact the defense.
Even if that weren’t the case, Amorim’s attack has looked good to start the season. United ranks fifth in expected goals and sixth in non-penalty xG, per fbref.com.
Additionally, Palace has relied heavily on goalkeeping to produce its defensive record. Palace has allowed nine goals off 13 post-shot xGA this year, the largest gap in the EPL.
History also suggests this match could produce goals. Since 2023, fixtures featuring a home favorite with a 2.5-goal total are 52-17 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The home team’s game number falls between 12 and 27
- The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.3 and 1.8
Palace has found itself in that situation five times previously. Those home games are 5-0 to the over.
