It all comes down to this.
Jacksonville State is set to host Western Kentucky in the regular-season finale for both teams, with the winner set to host the Conference USA championship and the loser potentially missing the title game entirely.
The Gamecocks (7-4, 6-1 CUSA) lost to FIU 27-21 on Saturday. Western Kentucky (8-3, 6-1 CUSA) fell to LSU 13-10 on Saturday on the road.
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Here’s everything you need to know about Saturday’s game, including a key matchup, storylines and a score prediction.
Key matchup
Western Kentucky receivers vs. Jacksonville State cornerbacks
The Hilltoppers consistently have a solid passing attack under head coach Tyson Helton, and this year is no different. Western Kentucky ranks second in total team passing yards in Conference USA (3,091) and receiving touchdowns (21), also ranking second in team offensive efficiency (143.8) behind newcomer Missouri State.
Western Illinois transfer Matthew Henry leads the receiving efforts with 45 catches for 719 yards and six touchdowns for the Hilltoppers, while Valley native K.D. Hutchinson has a team-high 56 catches with 582 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Noah Meyers also has three touchdowns on the season.
The variety of pass-catchers will provide a solid matchup for Jax State’s cornerbacks, led recently by Tre’Quon Fegans. He ranks fourth in the nation in catch rate allowed (31.4%) and leads Conference USA corners in forced incompletion rate (25.7%) and passer rating when targeted (50.3), according to Pro Football Focus.
Tyrin Taylor leads the entire defense in snaps (686) and has been a key addition to the secondary and finished with a 70.6 coverage grade against FIU. Jaheim Jenkins missed last week’s matchup with an injury, with freshman RJ Rainer seeing the field for a few snaps in the loss to FIU.
Storylines
Road to the championship
There are a handful of scenarios in which Jacksonville State could make an appearance in the conference championship game.
Regardless of other games, if Jax State beats Western Kentucky on Saturday, the Gamecocks will host for a second straight season and will host Kennesaw State at Burgess-Snow Field at AmFirst Stadium. A loss for the Hilltoppers would knock them out entirely, as Kennesaw State owns a better winning percentage against common opponents.
A loss for Jax State would certainly put it out of rights to host the CUSA title game, with Western Kentucky set to host if the Hilltoppers win. But, if Jax State loses and Liberty beats Kennesaw State in the regular-season finale, the Gamecocks would be traveling to Western Kentucky for the championship.
If Western Kentucky beats Jax State and Kennesaw State beats Liberty, then it would be the Owls traveling to Western Kentucky for the conference title. Missouri State is behind all three of these teams at 5-2 in CUSA play, but is ineligible due to its transition from FCS to FBS play.
Jacksonville State wide receiver Deondre Johnson hauls in a touchdown against FIU.Madison Giltner, Jax State Athletics
Streak continues for redshirt sophomore
Deondre Johnson has continued his solid run as Jax State’s leading receiver and now has four straight games with a touchdown catch after another against FIU last week.
Over the last four games, Johnson has 10 catches for 369 yards and five touchdowns to lead Jax State over that span; he had just 73 receiving yards in the first seven games combined. With the playmaking 6-foot-8 wide receiver continuing to settle in and make big plays with Caden Creel and Gavin Wimsatt, keep an eye on the Rutgers transfer to be a factor in this decisive tilt.
Prediction
Jacksonville State 34, Western Kentucky 30
The answer for either team is easy: win and… host.
Jacksonville State has been a different team at home this season, with this championship game-deciding tilt back at Burgess-Snow Field. Still, there are some matchups in favor of the Gamecocks regardless of which team is at home.
Western Kentucky’s defense ranks No. 9 in Conference USA in allowed rushing yards per game, providing Cam Cook and Caden Creel an opportunity on Saturday. Jax State’s secondary has also come together for some performances in recent weeks, with safety Trevor Woods faring well in coverage and tackling all season and Tre’Quon Fegans quietly blossoming into one of the best defenders in Conference USA when it comes to ball skills. The veteran defensive line, led by Emmanuel Oyebadejo, should also make an impact.
The last time Western Kentucky made the trip to Jacksonville was a 52-12 blowout in the CUSA title game last season. This score won’t be nearly as lopsided this time around, but Jax State has all the pieces to pull away from the Hilltoppers.
Jacksonville State wide receiver Brock Rechsteiner runs for room against Delaware.Madison Giltner, Jax State Athletics
Game info
Who: Western Kentucky (8-3) at Jacksonville State (7-4)
Where: Burgess-Snow Field at AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, Ala.
When: Saturday, Nov. 29 – 1 p.m. CT
Watch: ESPN+
On the call: Eli Gold, Jeff Burger, Taylor Korn (TV); Mike Parris, Ray Hammett, Tommy Wood (radio)
Listen: WLJS 91.9
