The Toronto Maple Leafs look to build on an impressive come-from-behind win over the Chicago Blackhawks as they head on the road to face the Washington Capitals. Toronto is 7-3-3 over its last 13 games and sits four points out of a playoff spot, while Washington enters after winning 10 of 12 games before dropping three straight.
Thursday’s matchup features an elite scoring showdown between Alex Ovechkin, continuing to add to his legendary NHL goal record, and Auston Matthews, who is heating up after a slow start. Matthews has posted five goals and four assists over his last nine games and responded with a multi-point effort against Chicago after head coach Craig Berube called out the team’s leadership following a 6-3 loss to Edmonton.
Momentum has been an ongoing issue for Toronto, but Matthews’ recent play will be key as the Leafs try to remain competitive in both this matchup and the playoff race. For those following the Pad Stack Challenge, the approach remains unchanged as we start with $10 and build steadily through disciplined, research-driven wagers, with a season high of $411.47 before a late empty-net goal spoiled the Vancouver spread.
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Picks: Capitals ML & Under 6.5 Goals (+175)
The Capitals are clear favorites in this matchup, and the case for them is strong. They are overdue for a win after losing three straight games and have also defeated the Maple Leafs in three consecutive meetings. That said, before their most recent visit to Washington, Toronto had enjoyed playing in D.C., with their last road loss there ending a three game winning streak against the Capitals. Even so, that trend is unlikely to continue. Washington has been dominant at home this season with a 10–5–2 record, while Toronto has struggled at 5–7–0 on the road.
The Capitals are expected to start current Vezina Trophy favorite Logan Thompson in goal. He has been reliable against the Leafs over his career, posting a 4–1–1 record with a 2.74 goals against average. While Toronto may still find the net once or twice, Thompson should provide enough stability for Washington to secure the win.
Although recent history between these teams points toward a high scoring game, with six or more total goals in 16 of their last 20 meetings, I anticipate that trend to shift. Thompson’s presence should play a key role, especially considering the total has stayed under seven goals in three of the last five matchups.
A $10 wager on this same-game parlay would return $17.50, giving a total of $27.50 heading into Friday and the weekend.
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