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The Liberal government’s federal budget will be put to a vote in the House of Commons Monday, setting up a critical test for Prime Minister Mark Carney.
The budget vote will be a matter of confidence, which the minority Liberals will need to survive in order to remain in power.
If the government falls, it could trigger a snap election — forcing Canadians to the polls for the second time this year.
The Conservatives and Bloc Québécois have already signalled they won’t support the budget, with each party saying it did not address their respective priorities.
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, the party’s sole MP, has called for stronger climate change commitments in order to earn her vote.
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That means all eyes are on whether the seven-member NDP caucus will back the Liberals, despite the party raising concerns about parts of the budget.
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The Liberals, with 170 seats in the House of Commons – one of those, the Speaker of the House of Commons who only votes in event of a tie – need at least two other MPs to vote with them to survive any matters of confidence.
Opposition parties helped the Liberals defeat two confidence votes earlier this month related to the budget.
If the Liberals survive the budget vote, the House of Commons will then vote the following day on a ways and means motion that implements tax changes outlined in the spending plan. That motion is expected to pass if the overall budget is approved.
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Budget 2025 proposes $141.4 billion in new spending offset by $51.7 billion in projected savings over the next five years, with the deficit projected at $78.3 billion this year.
The budget touts $115 billion in infrastructure spending over five years, $30 billion more in defence and security spending and $25 billion for federal housing initiatives over that same period.
It also promises to invest $110 billion over five years in “productivity and competitiveness” initiatives – measures the government hopes will help their new target of “catalyzing” $500 billion in private sector investment by 2030.
—With files by Alex Boutilier
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